Kurdistan: Crisis or opportunity?

This will be a continuing topic. These are my initial thoughts and beliefs.

The next big crisis in the Middle East, not that there is any shortage of them, is one that has been brewing for a relatively short period of time, just over a century, and until recently has had little to no chance of success. I am talking of the Kurds, and why the US should support their independence.

The possibility of a Kurdish state will be a major issue in the near future due to their influential role in the modern middle east, most notably since the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and subsequent rise of ISIS.  Kurdish nationhood will become a major issue once the current dust settles in the wake of ISIS and the Syrian civil war.

Simply, the Kurds feel they are due and feel they have earned it by playing a leading role against ISIS. The Iraqi Kurds, most notably, have shown the ability to successfully govern and secure their borders and people in northern Iraq during the post US invasion insurgency and rise of ISIS. They resisted wave after wave of insurgent attacks in their border region during the surge of 2006-2008. They defended Kirkuk in 2014 after the Iraqi army fell apart in the face of ISIS and now exert more control than Baghdad.  

Kirkuk Province
Police Leadership, 2007

Here are my thoughts on a Kurdish independence movement and the impact it could have on the middle east, and why the US should support it.

1. Expectations. The Kurdish ethnic group is spread over an area ranging from Syria, through Turkey and Iraq into Iran. They have wanted statehood since the division of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, and at several points came close to getting something close to it. The 2005 Iraqi constitution recognized the Kurdish Regional Government and its laws furthering hope among the Kurds.

2. Governance. Specifically, Iraqi Kurdistan is a very stable region of Iraq even during the most violent period of the US occupation in 2006/07.  The US didn't even station combat forces in this region. They control their own internal borders and maintain a very effective but under equipped militia, the Peshmerga. They have a developing oil sector and are expanding their economic base. If any Kurdish area were to make a move for independence it's in Iraq. The settings are ripe.

3. Competence. Kurds from Turkey, Iraq and Syria have proven to be a very effective fighting force against ISIS. They managed to solidify their territorial claims in Iraq by holding their ground against ISIS offensives aimed at Kirkuk and even managed to gain ground in Syria during its chaotic civil war. Various Kurd militias have received and are receiving advanced military training. They take this to heart and have shown their worthiness on the battlefield time and again. They are a force to be reckoned with.

While it may all seem rosey there are major friction points, both internally and externally that could lead to widespread conflict.

4. Internal infighting. The Kurds are susceptible to vicious civil strife.  This success may look great from the outside but they are far from a united people. They are broken into many factions and political parties. As ISIS retreats and the future of Syria materializes these fault lines will become more noticeable as they each fight to become the standard bearer for Kurdish statehood. Kurdish civil war is common. This is especially true for the Kurds in Syria and Iraq as they have more autonomy than their Turkish and Iranian brothers.  Kurdish civil war could lead to instability in Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.

5. External pressure and support. Turkey, and Iran do not want a Kurdish movement to gain momentum as it could mean increased Kurdish resistance within their borders. The Kurds also lack an international voice or movement.  

Take an ethnic group devoid of a nation that’s spread across several sovereign countries. Add some expectations, hope and some ability to successfully govern a large portion of that population. Throw in a competent, well trained and disciplined fighting force and what do you get? You got yourself a national political movement. Now add a bit of internal strife, various factions and political philosophies and you got yourself a volatile movement, a potentially destabilizing movement that crosses numerous international borders, religious sects and ethnic groups.

What does this add up to? A potential mess. A really big mess. But also an opportunity, a big geopolitical opportunity for the US to reset the balance of mideast power.

Overall the Kurds have been emboldened by their success in defending their traditional homelands in Syria and Iraq over the past two decades. This success will lead them to demand more autonomy if not outright statehood. If things are going to get violent the US should at least try to set the stage to prevent a humanitarian disaster and improve our posture in the region. This would be counter to our experience in Syria where the US allowed Russia and Iran to reassert influence and caused a humanitarian disaster.

Why US support?

- They have proven to be very staunch allies despite the fact the US has never bent over backwards for them in order to appease the powers in Ankara, Baghdad and Tehran. The time for appeasing those capitals is over. Baghdad is under control of Tehran and Turkey seems to be leaning towards Russia. This may pull Turkey back to the US and can put pressure on Iran.  In any event US influence is ebbing in the middle east, and by acknowledging and supporting Kurdistan the US will gain leverage and a known ally.

- It will start the long overdue process of breaking up the current borders that is Syria and Iraq into common sense borders roughly based on how the Ottoman Empire administered the region. This may be violent in the short term but could prove better for all involved in the long run.

- Iraqi Kurdistan has a de facto national government and bureaucracy that has been in place since the early 1990’s. Iraqi Kurds have a progressive and thriving society compared to other Middle East nations, seek economic development and have genuine affection for Westerns. They have a lot going for them, they just need some initial support.

US support would surely set off a firestorm and could lead to an outright ethnic war against the Kurds within their host nations. However, this is a risk the US should take and a topic for another day.