China and N. Korea and why the NASA cant develop rockets like North Korea

4.5 acres of sovereign US territory. 

I ramble on here a bit regarding potential game changing Chinese action action against N.Korea, and why NASA should develop rockets like the Russians and N. Koreans.

Trump is apparently having some success influencing China to respond to N. Korean nuke tests. China is realizing the US means business under Trump, as opposed to the 8 years of Obama's do nothing policy towards N. Korea. Even the mouthpiece of the Chinese government, The Global Times, suggested increased sanctions against N.Korea if they test another nuke. The Chinese know Trump means business as his strikes against Syria and the movement of a carrier strike group to the Korean peninsula has shown he is willing to take decisive action.

As I mentioned earlier Obama adhered to a policy of lets just wait until N. Korea collapses. Meanwhile, the Kim regime wasn't going anywhere and just kept improving their nuclear and ballistic missile programs.  (disjointed transition to rocket development here)...

The 1st stage of a Space X Falcon 9 rocket that
 landed on a barge in the atlantic ocean after putting its payload in orbit.

While Obama did nothing Kim and his scientists improved their ballistic missiles through the old Soviet method of trial and error. Every rocket test the US declared a failure was actually a success for the N. Koreans as they learned from every mistake. Its incremental improvement. The NASA method takes longer as we are hesitant to have a failure on launch because they ar afraid to lose support of congress, and thus funding. NASA tries to engineer all of the bugs out before the first launch, this takes longer and is more expensive. Space X takes the approach of the Russians,,they are not afraid to fail and use each failure to learn more. Look at Space X failures at landing the first stage of a rocket,,many failures but they learned from each one and it's paying off now.

Now is the perfect time for China to challenge Trump, or not.

Im just following up on an earlier post regarding a crisis between the US and China. Considering increased tensions on the Korean peninsula and the middle east its probably a good time to look at this.

Earlier post.

https://containandisolate.blogspot.com/2017/02/when-will-china-challenge-trump.html

Many posts ago I put forth the idea that China would eventually challenge Trump as President. To judge how the new administration can handle a crisis. It would most likely come in the form of a military confrontation that would otherwise be routine  The script is familiar, and somewhat routine, Chinese military aircraft or naval vessels will confront its US peer on the  basis the US is violating, or coming close to violating Chinese territory.  This is routine in that nations do this all the time and was at its peak during the Cold War between NATO and the Soviet Union.

Historical Precedent.

China did just that to both George W. Bush and Barack Obama early in their administrations. In Obama’s case the Chinese attempted to physically damage a US navy surveillance ship in March of 2009.  During GWB’s first term the incident occurred in early April 2001, lasted for 10 days and resulted in the death of one Chinese fighter pilot and the capture and eventual repatriation of a US surveillance plane and its crew.

USNS Impeccable.
The ship involved in the March 2009 incident with China.
US Navy.

Thus far the Trump administration has not had to deal with this, but the time is ripe,,and we are in the historic window of when the Chinese pull these off. (I know this happening twice isnt exactly precedent but commies are usually predictable when it comes to such things.)  This is a great time for the Chinese to pull one of these off for two reasons. First, tensions are increased in China’s neighborhood due to N. Korea’s ballistic missile program and the more aggressive US posture in the region. Two, the US has already ratcheted up tensions with Russia by striking a Syrian air base. So now you basically have a very tense situation in the Middle East  and an increasingly tense situation in China’s backyard. An additional crisis instigated by China would serve as an excellent opportunity to judge the Trump administration’s ability to handle multiple crisis at once.  

There are obvious risk associate with this approach. China is a scripted government and loves predictability.  Trump is the antithesis to this approach.  Spur of the moment thinking does not make Beijing very comfortable and US chest thumping regarding military strikes against N. Korea’s nuke program exacerbates this problem.  Beijing knowing Trump’s spontaneous nature could miscalculate and push it too far,  sparking a crisis that does more than increase the pucker factor.  A second risk is that China’s military is increasingly confident due to better equipment, realistic training compared to what they had in the past and government encouraged nationalism. Add in the fact the Chinese believe the US is in decline both economically and militarily and you got yourself a big bowl of overconfidence soup.

I just hope the Trump folks are anticipating this and have a plan to stand our ground while avoiding a shooting war and demonstrating to our allies we got their back.

What is a Tomahawk?

A tomahawk cruise missile or TLAM (Tomahawk Land Attack Missile) as the military refers to it is a precision guided munition with a range of about 1000 miles. It is an extremely flexible weapon system in that it can be reprogrammed in-flight, hugs the ground as it flies near supersonic speed and can even loiter around for a bit while waiting for orders. 

They utilize radar, GPS and inertial guidance to navigate to the target. TLAMs can be programmed to follow very specific routes and uses a terrain matching system to avoid air defenses. In other words we can launch numerous TLAMs from a single point and have each one take a different route to the target. These weapons give the US a massive advantage of surprise.

TLAMs can be launched from submarines, destroyers, cruisers and aircraft. Due to treaty constraints the US does not have the capability to launch these missiles from ground units. Thus, the US primarily relies upon ships and subs to employ these beasts. This system is so significant that the US Navy converted 4 submarines to carry up to 150 TLAMs each. These submarines were initially designed  to carry 24 Trident II nuclear missiles but with the end of the cold war the Navy repurposed 4 of them to carry Tomahawks,,lots of Tomahawks. 

TLAMs are armed with conventional explosive warhead, and if that were not enough development is ongoing to utilize any remaining fuel as part of the explosive package. TLAMs are so accurate that they can be sent in waves with the first missile or two opening a hardened structure to allow successive rounds to enter the target for maximum effect and destruction.  

Loose Lips Sink Ships. Trump vs Obama.

1. Obama’s hypothetical comments regarding the April 2017 Syrian chemical weapons attack on civilians:

Okay people. A red line has been crossed. The US will retaliate at 3:43 am on 16April 2017 with 3 x B-1B bombers dropping 83 GBU-38, 500 pound JDAMs over the following 56 targets in the following target annex. It will be followed up with a raid conducted by Delta Force, SEAL Team Six and supported by Army rangers in Raqqa at the intersection of Broad St and Pattison Ave. next to the hoagie shop. They will arrive from the south east in a flight of Ospreys, Chinooks and Blackhawks escorted by 2 Apaches.  Our special operators will have beards and will be in civilian clothes with reflector belts for safety.

2. Trump’s real life response to a question regarding if the US is taking action against Syria:

“I’m not saying I’m doing anything one way or the other, but I’m certainly not going to be telling you, as much as I respect you, John.  Thank you.”

- President Donald Trump, White House 5April 2017.

Rod removal operation

Ahh,,I was in an out of the hospital this morning so the Doc could remove the external fixator that was keeping my ankle and leg in a fixed position over the past 6 weeks. This was to allow the ankle reconstruction to properly heal. 

The operation took 10 minutes! They gave me a partial knock out so I was home less than 2 hours after the procedure. 

Now its one week until I see the Doc again when she will put me in a boot or a hard cast. Dont matter to me. She said I will be able to put weight on the leg in as little as 4 weeks from now but its a game time decision she will make at the weekly appointments. 

Before, with external fixator, ie rods

After.

My right calf muscle, or what's left of it, is able to move while it rests in a open splint. This allows me to flex the muscle and begin the process of rebuilding the muscle. I was not able to flex the calf muscle until about a 2 weeks ago because the external fixator interfered too much with muscle movement and thus caused great pain. At least now I can get the muscle moving a little bit, which is better than none. 


My foot is another story. The skin is falling off as if I were molting like a snake. Since I couldn't wash it in the shower that dead skin has been building up and is coming off in layers. This sounds nasty but it gave me something to do when the rods were installed. You can only read, watch TV, lift kettlebells and write stuff for so long you know.  However, it gave me physical relief as the layers of dead skin were inhibiting my tactile sense in the foot and the ability to move my toes. That is how much dead skin was accumulating. I cant wait to see how nasty the foot is after I get it out of the cast.

China, Cuba and the US Embargo

Slick Willie!

Seems China is seeking closer ties to Cuba these days. This coming from the mouthpiece of the communist government, The People’s Daily. This means one thing, the Cuban communist party isn't going anywhere if the Chinese are allowed to entrench there. A Chinese military relationship with Cuba also means a heavy commercial and infrastructure investment.

This is a symbolic poke in the eye to the US and goes beyond a simple Chinese investment. The Chinese know the significance of Cuba in US politics and our history. They have invested in Central and South America but the potential investment in Cuba is a brazen move indicative of an increasingly confident Chinese government.  Heavy Chinese investment in the development of Cuba will only further entrench the ruling communist party led by the Castros. This is the antithesis of established US policy for over half a century.  

The US should take this as a signal that it’s losing its influence with our southern neighbors through outdated policies and indifference. I am referring to the US embargo on Cuba. While this may not be a traditional breach of the Monroe Doctrine, as China is not seeking to take control of Cuba, knowing China and its tendency to cozy up to and reinforce authoritarian regimes, we should perhaps consider this idea and take appropriate action, that being ending the embargo.

All one must do is look at China’s adventures in Africa and Asia. Their investments typically benefit the ruling elite and reinforce the status quo in order to provide a stable environment for the targeted Chinese investment. This is done by enticing governments with cheap infrastructure projects that are often built with lots of Chinese labor, while native populations get token benefits. As American author Howard French wrote “there was mounting resentment over the way China was seen to be…despoiling the environment, dispossessing powerless landholders or flouting local laws, fuelling corruption, and, most of all, empowering awful governments.”

Over 50 years have passed and the embargo has done nothing to effect positive change in Cuba.

While the US sits back and drives on with its useless embargo of Cuba the Chinese are seeking to open up an underdeveloped market, a market that the US should be focused on developing for our benefit and the benefit of the Cuban people. If the US were to further open up investment and drop the embargo we could do a lot more to help the impoverished Cuban people than China ever could. Freedom would most likely ensue. I am not talking of the neoconservative tendency to overthrow governments but the full opening of economic ties. If the Cubans still want communism let them have it but lets allow US capitalism to have access. Full US engagement with Cuba would, in the long run, increase the Cuban standard of living, human rights and their freedom.

This is not a case where China is going to position nuclear weapons or even conventional weapons on Cuba. China will probably take its usual course when investing in a new nation. Lots of shoddy infrastructure construction with plenty of Chinese workers while reinforcing authoritarian governments and sucking natural resources from the host nation. To offset this the US should consider ending the embargo or at least loosening more trade restrictions. This will allow US companies, while not socially or environmentally the best on earth, to gain a stronger foothold in the Cuban economy and help the Cuban people.  Jobs would be created and revenue generated. On the flip side, one can argue the communist regime will benefit the most. This is why I disagree.

For those arguing the Cuban government has a horrible human rights record and ending the embargo will strengthen the regime, I hear you, but you are half right. When was the last time you used an iphone or almost any other electronic device? Chances are it was fully or partially made in China. China is an authoritarian state that is on par with Cuba,,and worse when you look at China during the early days of the communist party (20 million dead due to the Great Leap Forward). Even today, Chinese citizens just disappear by the thousands every year. In Freedom House’s annual global freedom rankings China ranks 16th worst while Cuba comes in a close 15th place.

Look at past instances where communist nations opened up. In most cases the general population benefited. Look at China, 500 + million lifted out of absolute poverty, Vietnam, a rising Asian economic power will a growing middle class and eastern europe as a whole. Russia, is also doing better under its version of an open market, with regards to food lines and income. Yes the Cuban ruling elite would benefit but for how long? A lot longer if the Chinese have their way. The Cuban people are fans of the United States, not something the US has in abundance right now. The US should take of advantage of this opportunity before it’s too late and the Chinese prolong the authoritarian rule of Cuba.