The external fixator

The plan for my second surgery was to avoid putting my leg into contraption called a external fixator but the Doc was not taking any risks so I woke up with this thing installed on leg. This will remain on for a period determined by the Doc.

Prior to both surgeries I obviously had the opportunity to go online and become an expert in the field of orthopedic surgery, as we all know that if its online it must be true. However, I know my limits when it comes to certain things and this would have caused more mental anguish than good. I would have thought about the procedure too much and began the horrible mental game of playing “What if?”

Source. This is not my leg.

With that decided, I trusted the Dr. and looked up jack s$!t. I just asked her a few questions as to what she was going to do and I was satisfied. It’s not like I need a second opinion when my foot is hanging on only by by skin and a small ligament.  The only question I had before before both surgeries was to ensure that they were operating on the correct appendage.  This may seem weird since it was obvious what leg was broken, but I had seen on 60 Minutes years ago that if the patient just asks this simple question it could spur the staff into increasing their attention.

Its been a week since they replaced my old deltoid ligament with a cadaver so I figured its safe to look up what they did.  Its not as I previously described as i took a peek under the ace bandage and its an A frame type device with the apex imbedded in my upper tibia and the two supporting legs both anchored into what seems to be my heel area. The contraption,an External Fixator, installed on me is somewhat different but you get the idea. It is keeping the tibia and fibula aligned and together with the ankle.

As for pain, it was at its highest about from about 40 hours post operation to 72 hours. The pain suppressing nerve block bottle was rounds complete at about the 24 hour period and then I had to pop the Oxy to make it manageable. It was pretty bad for about 12 straight hours and at one point I thought the ER was in the future. I called the doc and they got me stronger meds immediately, which helped. I am now only taking motrin for general pain management. I take an oxy in the morning as my leg is very sore from moving around while i sleep and putting pressure on the pins. Its not enough pain to wake me up but it accumulates so my whole leg has  a dull throbbing pain when i wake.

My sleep pattern has become even more erratic, and I thought that was not possible. I am normally out between 730 to 930 pm and wake up at 2am. This is good as i can get aidan ready for pre school prior to Liz departing around 0630.  I then nap once or twice during the day in between reading, writing and watching the TV. Lots of documentaries and Breaking Bad.

To retain some physical fitness i stretch numerous times over the course of the day and add in some kettlebell exercises. Stretches and kettlebell put no stress or pressure on my bum leg. Altogether I get in about 250 reps with 35# and 25# kettlebells divided into about 4-6 different movements.

This routine along with a disciplined diet has resulted in a weight loss of about 10 pounds, which was long overdue.

Lets talk about close ties to Russia,,,,,,

Who launches the most important US national security satellite payloads? It is probably not the answer you would think. These payloads include ballistic missile early warning satellites, weather satellites, reconnaissance satellites and communication satellites. In many ways it is Russia. Since the 1990s the US Air Force, the organization responsible for placing national security payloads into orbit, has been reliant upon the Russian designed and built RD-180 booster engine to place its most important assets into orbit.

Why? Cost and reliability. The US has domestically produced engines that can do the job but not nearly as efficient as the RD-180. The RD 180 is powerful, has fewer parts and is easier to manufacture than the current US made RS-68/A engine. While the RS-68 powers the Delta IV rocket family, the worlds most powerful orbital launch system currently in service, it does so at a cost nearly 30% more expensive than the RD-180. Since the mid 1990s when the US and Russian governments agreed to this deal the US military became addicted to the RD-180 and little was done to find a domestically produced equal. This was the case until 2014 when congress finally authorized funding to produce an alternative in response to the Russian annexation of Crimea.  

Currently the US is on schedule to launch the AR-1 booster no earlier than 2019. The AR-1 is being produced by Aerojet Rocketdyne.  

Read the short report that is put into regular person talk.

http://www.ulalaunch.com/Products_AtlasV.aspx

Forgotton backyard

Everyone seems to be focused on the chaos in the Middle East, ISIS, rogue nuclear states like Iran and North Korea, Russian aggression, Chinese expansionism and European Union disunion. The one area where the US needs to refocus is in our own backyard. Latin America has taken a back, back seat in US foreign policy, with the specific exclusion of the war on drugs (failing), since the end of the cold war.  As as result of our shortsightedness our influence in South and Central America has atrophied like the calf muscle in my broken leg. 


The US took for granted our dominance in Latin America for too long and China is filling the void. China has the tendency to heavily invest in the infrastructure of developing nations in exchange for cheap raw materials.These are very attractive offers to poor and underdeveloped nations and are often taken despite dubious returns. 

Source

Its also common for the Chinese government to relocate vast numbers of Chinese citizens to act as the labor force (especially true in Africa). This serves two purposes for Beijing,,,1. It keeps Chinese citizens employed and thus preventing anti government protests and 2, they reinforce an indigenous labor force that may lack the requisite skills.  This has led to the Chinese taking over local markets and economies. 

There are many articles out there showing how China has been slowing growing more substantial economic ties to this region. The reasons behind are driven by Latin America’s natural resources. China is trying to secure a stable food source for a population that is quickly adopting a more western like diet based on protein and dairy products. The Chinese manufacturing based economy also requires new and cheaper sources of raw materials. With this investment comes increased influence and we all know that money talks and BS walks. US influence is waning.  

The US should take a more active approach in its relations with our southern neighbors that goes beyond drug interdiction and military aid. Lets focus on rebuilding the long term relationship we have with these nations via trade and investment. The Chinese model for foreign investment is flawed and is set up to primarily benefit the Chinese, we should use this against them to re-establish our influence. 

Why Dogs drink from toilets?

I just witnessed our dog drink from the toilet. This comes from the only dog I have ever met that refuses certain dog treats, pretzels and certain bread. He is picky but at the same time likes to slum it every now and then. 

Zeus.
2 yrs old.
Belgian Malinois.
56lbs.
Toilet Drinker!

This got me thinking about why dogs drink from the toilet. Why do this when they have access to a water bowl. I think it's their short term fixation for cool water. Our dog only drinks from the toilet after being outside.  The porcelain bowl insulates and keeps the water cooler than his steel or plastic water bowl.  Its a short term fix to an immediate problem. Drinking from the toilet is not in the least bit healthy and thus a poor long term solution,,, but its a fix nonetheless. Once he cools down he goes back to the water bowl. 

Since I have lots of free time I related this to the possibility of the US entering a new phase in our relationship with Russia. While many would agree improved relations between these nuclear powers is a good thing over long run maybe not so much. Since its inception as the USSR and now Russia they have viewed the west, in particular the US and UK, as the enemy. The ideological reasons have shifted over the years but the outcome is the same. We are the enemy. 

This does not bode well for long term relations. Short term, however, improved relations between the US and Russia could deescalate the situation in eastern europe and help roll back ISIS. 

If the US were to seek improved long term relations with any country it should be China. Unlike Russia they are an upcoming power and have an economy that is integrated, if not completely dependent upon two way foreign trade and are not currently invading other nations.  Russia has declining demographics (worse than China), has an economy based solely on the export of energy and has an overall standard of living that is in long term decline.

China, while not perfect would be a better long term investment than Russia. Russia may be great to satisfy our short term thirst for some degree of stability with a major power, but long term it will prove disastrous. 

South China Sea Propaganda

Google Maps

Please give this article a quick read from the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times. Should only take a few minutes and is worth to see how Beijing is pushing along its agenda of claiming the entire South China Sea (SCS). This article is in response to an ongoing operation where a US aircraft carrier strike group is sailing right thru the SCS, to Beijing's dismay.

Recently, Beijing has even gone so far as to include their claim to the South China Sea on their passports in the form of the Nine-Dash Line.  The purpose behind this move is simple.  Nations that accept the Chinese passport are by default agreeing to Chinese sovereignty claims over most of the SCS.

Every attempt at claiming the South China Sea, a claim which an international tribunal threw out as baseless in 2016, is an effort to rewrite the narrative and reset the international norm. Eventually, if China is allowed to persist unchallenged it will become reality. China is playing the long game in the SCS to redraw borders without a fight, just sheer patience. 

Telephone Townhall with my Congressman

Today I am participating in the great American tradition of the Telephone Town Hall meeting. 

This tradition harkens back to the very beginning of our republic.  George Washington would hold town hall meetings on his smartphone while waiting in line to get a cheesesteak at Geno's and Abe Lincoln would would postpone strategy meetings with General Sherman to conduct a live telephone poll on whether or not the North should only tear up the southern railroads or bend the steel rails with fire to give em a rough go at reconstruction. 

In all honestly, this does appear to be an honest town hall. There are no angry people but they are very concerned about an abrupt repeal of obama care.  My representative, Steve Scalise, was under some fire earlier this week for not attending a proper town hall after his coworker, Senator Bill Cassidy was blasted at a town hall just outside of New Orleans.  I appreciate Rep. Scalise as he and his office acted quickly with a major dispute I have with the Veterans administration. 

Since I am laid up with nothing better to do I am participating. They give instructions on how to ask a question but there is a long wait. He is also conducting polls where you vote yes or no by pressing 1 or 2 on the phone.  In the thirty minutes I have been listening he has fielded about a dozen questions, most focused on flood relief and healthcare. 

Retirement Crisis?

I have seen a lot of articles over the past few years regarding the impending US retirement crisis and stagnant wages . The general theme is that a crisis is brewing because companies no longer provide traditional pensions and have pushed the retirement savings responsibility over to workers. It is compounded by a lack in strong wage growth. As most people know its up to the individual worker to save for retirement through a 401k and IRAs with the backstop being social security. Pensions are a thing of the past. 

Here is some food for thought I wrangled from the Fed reserve board database.


The chart above shows the labor participation rate (blue line) is decreasing slightly while the employment rate of people 55 years of age and older is increasing (red line). Is this related to the lack of pensions and the rise of self funded retirements or just a coincident?  

The reason for this could be for many of reasons, baby boomers like to work, perhaps they must work because of a lack of retirement funds or the retirement savings they have are not adequate due to longer life expectancies. Will this trend continue on with future generations, if so this could be a real problem for those entering the workforce as they will have to compete with older workers with more experience.

In the second chart you see that GDP per capita is increasing at a greater rate than median income, and may overtake it in the near future. This means as the workforce becomes more productive it is not being compensated for increased performance. Most notably productivity has made great gains since the great recession of 2008/09. Companies shed millions of workers and then seem to have hired them back at lower wages. That’s why the unemployment rate is low, productivity high and median income stagnant. Companies are paying less for more work.  

I’m not an economist but this makes sense in my mind. An example is that when the recovery began in 2010 I saw many job openings in the banking sector looking for entry level jobs that required 5+ years of experience. How can it be entry level but experience is required?  At the time it told me that corporations were hiring back experienced workers for less pay and those workers were willing to take it because any job was better than no job.

So are we headed towards a retirement savings crisis? I think it is likely, especially if you look into the savings and net worth held by young and middle aged households.

What say you?

When will China challenge Trump?

I saw something about the US sending a carrier strike group through the south china sea last week. Here is an updated article.
http://www.atimes.com/article/china-edge-us-carrier-strike-group-exercises-south-china-sea/

It will be interesting to see if this is when China will challenge Trump, as they have done with the past two new presidents. Remember the aircraft collision in George W. Bush's first term and the incident with one of our naval survey ships under Obama?  Both were aimed at pressing a new US President. On both accounts the US didnt back down but the Chinese did gain a great deal of classified information when our reconnaissance plane conducted an emergency landing on Chinese territory in 2001.  

Personally I hope Mattis sends that carrier group within 12 nautical miles of one of the reefs China claimed and militarized. To date the US hasn't sailed within this limit publically thus adding some legitimacy to China's claims of sovereignty. 

See this article regarding the build up.
https://amti.csis.org/chinas-new-spratly-island-defenses/

2nd surgery and thankfullness

I am grateful for the support my family and friends has given me.  My parents were down for a few days and the kids have been great. I cant even put into words how thankful I am to have Liz as my wife. I would be a bad person to not acknowledge the person who donated his/her body to medicine, for they provided the ligament that will allow me to walk again. Thank you, I know you are in heaven.

I had my second surgery to repair my ankle yesterday. The primary purpose was to get my fibula back into proper alignment with my tibia and ankle. They put in a cadaver deltoid ligament that connects my tibia/fibula to my foot/ankle. As you can see from the pictures they inserted two skewers. 

My antenna leg. 

One runs perpendicular to my leg and goes completely through my foot. This keeps everything down south connected. I don't really remember  though as the Doc told me this when I was just waking up. Ill have to ask my wife,,she was the dedicated note taker.  

The other skewer sticks out at about a 30 degree angle from my tibia on the anterior side (ive picked up some medical jargon)and doesn't run thru. It has two spokes and some sort of device attached to it. What this device is i dont know and cant see it as its covered. I can imagine it's some medieval device with a cam or other torturous device. Its good this doesnt run all the way through as it allows me to elevate my leg by resting on my calf muscle,,,or what used to be a calf muscle. 

Inside of my leg.

I think this keeps my fibula in line with the ankle, as this was the main reason for the 2nd procedure. While the tendon cures and attaches itself to my bones these rods will keep the bones in proper alignment.

For pain management, its better than the first operation. After the first operation I was only given strong Tylenol and no nerve block or percocet. I wanted to avoid opioids, and the Doc agreed. Pain was bad but manageable for the 1st 48 hours. 

The "Q-Ball".

When I told the doc of the pain level she was amazed and said that was unsatisfactory and gave me a continuous nerve block and percocet RX. The nerve block is contained in a spherical container I carry around in a man purse.  The "Q-ball" auto delivers 10ml of wonderful pain blocking goodness per hour for up to 48 hours via a pre surgery installed saline lock. 

So today I am just relaxing, reading and watching Breaking Bad(never seen it). Luckily, I have my knee scooter so im mobile enough to fend for myself and do light duties such making chow and laundry.

I have set a few major goals everyday. Help Liz get Aidan ready for preschool, read, write the blog and prep dinner for the family. The dinner part is particularly important as it is taking some stress off of Liz. I prepare meals that don't keep me away from my recliner or couch for too long. 

What Liz has done for me has been nothing short of amazing. She is commanding a naval unit, picks up the kids and deals with my broke self in addition to all the shopping.  Cody does his fair share as he has dog crap patrol, dog walking duty in addition to dishes and being a teenager. 

Aidan has proven to be very adept at fetching me things, especially if i let him use my grabber/picker upper. The little trooper even emptied my pee bottle a few times while avoiding spilling urine all over the place.

That is all.

Kevin

Kurdistan: Crisis or opportunity?

This will be a continuing topic. These are my initial thoughts and beliefs.

The next big crisis in the Middle East, not that there is any shortage of them, is one that has been brewing for a relatively short period of time, just over a century, and until recently has had little to no chance of success. I am talking of the Kurds, and why the US should support their independence.

The possibility of a Kurdish state will be a major issue in the near future due to their influential role in the modern middle east, most notably since the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and subsequent rise of ISIS.  Kurdish nationhood will become a major issue once the current dust settles in the wake of ISIS and the Syrian civil war.

Simply, the Kurds feel they are due and feel they have earned it by playing a leading role against ISIS. The Iraqi Kurds, most notably, have shown the ability to successfully govern and secure their borders and people in northern Iraq during the post US invasion insurgency and rise of ISIS. They resisted wave after wave of insurgent attacks in their border region during the surge of 2006-2008. They defended Kirkuk in 2014 after the Iraqi army fell apart in the face of ISIS and now exert more control than Baghdad.  

Kirkuk Province
Police Leadership, 2007

Here are my thoughts on a Kurdish independence movement and the impact it could have on the middle east, and why the US should support it.

1. Expectations. The Kurdish ethnic group is spread over an area ranging from Syria, through Turkey and Iraq into Iran. They have wanted statehood since the division of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, and at several points came close to getting something close to it. The 2005 Iraqi constitution recognized the Kurdish Regional Government and its laws furthering hope among the Kurds.

2. Governance. Specifically, Iraqi Kurdistan is a very stable region of Iraq even during the most violent period of the US occupation in 2006/07.  The US didn't even station combat forces in this region. They control their own internal borders and maintain a very effective but under equipped militia, the Peshmerga. They have a developing oil sector and are expanding their economic base. If any Kurdish area were to make a move for independence it's in Iraq. The settings are ripe.

3. Competence. Kurds from Turkey, Iraq and Syria have proven to be a very effective fighting force against ISIS. They managed to solidify their territorial claims in Iraq by holding their ground against ISIS offensives aimed at Kirkuk and even managed to gain ground in Syria during its chaotic civil war. Various Kurd militias have received and are receiving advanced military training. They take this to heart and have shown their worthiness on the battlefield time and again. They are a force to be reckoned with.

While it may all seem rosey there are major friction points, both internally and externally that could lead to widespread conflict.

4. Internal infighting. The Kurds are susceptible to vicious civil strife.  This success may look great from the outside but they are far from a united people. They are broken into many factions and political parties. As ISIS retreats and the future of Syria materializes these fault lines will become more noticeable as they each fight to become the standard bearer for Kurdish statehood. Kurdish civil war is common. This is especially true for the Kurds in Syria and Iraq as they have more autonomy than their Turkish and Iranian brothers.  Kurdish civil war could lead to instability in Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.

5. External pressure and support. Turkey, and Iran do not want a Kurdish movement to gain momentum as it could mean increased Kurdish resistance within their borders. The Kurds also lack an international voice or movement.  

Take an ethnic group devoid of a nation that’s spread across several sovereign countries. Add some expectations, hope and some ability to successfully govern a large portion of that population. Throw in a competent, well trained and disciplined fighting force and what do you get? You got yourself a national political movement. Now add a bit of internal strife, various factions and political philosophies and you got yourself a volatile movement, a potentially destabilizing movement that crosses numerous international borders, religious sects and ethnic groups.

What does this add up to? A potential mess. A really big mess. But also an opportunity, a big geopolitical opportunity for the US to reset the balance of mideast power.

Overall the Kurds have been emboldened by their success in defending their traditional homelands in Syria and Iraq over the past two decades. This success will lead them to demand more autonomy if not outright statehood. If things are going to get violent the US should at least try to set the stage to prevent a humanitarian disaster and improve our posture in the region. This would be counter to our experience in Syria where the US allowed Russia and Iran to reassert influence and caused a humanitarian disaster.

Why US support?

- They have proven to be very staunch allies despite the fact the US has never bent over backwards for them in order to appease the powers in Ankara, Baghdad and Tehran. The time for appeasing those capitals is over. Baghdad is under control of Tehran and Turkey seems to be leaning towards Russia. This may pull Turkey back to the US and can put pressure on Iran.  In any event US influence is ebbing in the middle east, and by acknowledging and supporting Kurdistan the US will gain leverage and a known ally.

- It will start the long overdue process of breaking up the current borders that is Syria and Iraq into common sense borders roughly based on how the Ottoman Empire administered the region. This may be violent in the short term but could prove better for all involved in the long run.

- Iraqi Kurdistan has a de facto national government and bureaucracy that has been in place since the early 1990’s. Iraqi Kurds have a progressive and thriving society compared to other Middle East nations, seek economic development and have genuine affection for Westerns. They have a lot going for them, they just need some initial support.

US support would surely set off a firestorm and could lead to an outright ethnic war against the Kurds within their host nations. However, this is a risk the US should take and a topic for another day.

Whack A Mole Strategy

I don't know where I am going with this but here we go. My view on US grand strategy, or lack thereof, and why its important we establish one and communicate it to the public.

The world is in a period of transition. China is rising and the US seems to be faltering on the world stage. Our leadership and influence is being challenged. Our military exhausted, our government gridlocked through hyper partisanship and unending war.  How is the US going to confront a world where China will soon be the largest economy on earth? How will the US promote our core values of peace, freedom, democracy and human rights.

Since the fall of the USSR in 1991 the US has lacked a coherent grand strategy.  We have been playing whack a mole without a solid, realistic strategy to reinforce and our core values.   I’m talking about the US maintaining its status as the world's preeminent power. If the US does not maintain this status our core beliefs will fall victim to a new international order led by nations that have a much dimmer outlook for the world.

During the cold war the grand strategy was born in National Security Council (NSC) memo 68 which set forth how the US was going to defeat the USSR and the communist movement through the policy of containment.  This worked and avoided a direct conflict between the US and USSR. 

Under Bill Clinton, and to some extent George H.W. Bush, US grand strategy did not follow up on this victory and failed to assimilate Russia into the post communist world.  This lack of a post cold war strategy  further isolated Russia by enlarging NATO for little apparent strategic reason. Russia is a proud nation and the way they lost their empire was embarrassing, especially to the ruling class. The loss of global influence, and more importantly its traditional sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, the Baltics and the Caucasus directly contributed to the rise of Russian aggression since 2008. 

Since 1991 the closest the US came to an active grand strategy t was under George W. Bush and his neoconservative buddies (Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Paul Bremmer, Dick Cheney). The policy was preemption. Bush declared the US would intervene, unilaterally if needed, to protect itself from WMD,  terrorism and promote democratic regime change.  

Preemption was more of an operational response to a strategic problem. It relied overwhelming on the military and left out the subtle yet powerful aspects of US soft power.  GWB’s policy was short sighted and failed. 

Obama, despite denouncing foreign intervention, adopted some of its properties and greatly expanded the role of special operations and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in counter terror operations.  Obama also trashed US credibility by issuing empty threats in Syria and intervening on a seemingly haphazard basis across the middle east.  Preemption gave us the mess that is the middle east.

Preemption and the fiasco in Iraq also served to strengthen the global radical islamic movement and allowed China and Russia to increase their international influence. While the US is fighting cave dwellers and hunting down individuals all over the planet China and Russia were improving their conventional militaries to point of near parity to the atrophied US force.   

So what is the Trump administration going to do? So far there seems to be two schools of thought from my point of view. 

1. They have a brilliant strategy that is being secretly enacted behind the scenes and all of these self imposed crisis and drama is just subterfuge to confuse our enemies.
2. There is no strategy and they are winging it. 

The one thing I know is that Trump is definitely keeping our rivals on their toes, and I dont think anyone but Trump knows what our way forward will be. That is not a good thing. Just look at his National Security Council, it does not include the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the intelligence community has been marginalized and beat down in public.

What is the way forward?  Times are a'changin and the nation deserves a solid grand strategy to uphold our core values in a time of a rising China. Our government needs to come forward and state the obvious, we must retain our status as the world's preeminent power in order to support our core values. Peace through strength,,,but its gotta be done right.

Image:
By Kenneth Catania, Vanderbilt University, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=8923296

2 Week Post Op follow-up

I had my two week post op appointment with my Orthopedic Doc this morning to see the way forward. 

 Well, we are moving forward but must take a step back before I completely heal.

I will need a second operation in order to reconstruct my right ankle deltoid ligament that connects my leg to the foot. Apparently it was " fried" according to Dr. Corbett, which basically means it was totally destroyed. She said as soon as she cut me open the ankle literally fell off. At that point her priorities were to repair the bones and prevent infection as it was an open fracture. Xray pictures will follow.

I feel horrible as this is adding undue stress to Liz and the kids. I know the best thing I can do is help out around the house as much as possible, and maintain a positive outlook. Maybe I can learn to drive with my left foot. 😜 

Dr. Corbett considered the first operation, repairing of the fibula (open and shattered into 8 pieces, or comminuted in med speak) and dislocated ankle with destroyed cartilage, a success as the bones are secured, healing and absent infection.  They are secured with a titanium plate and 6-8 screws. 

The Doc said it could be worse and that some other doctors would say I'm good to go but this is her speciality, and she will fix it up. Whether this is to make me feel good I don't know, and don't really care. If she does her part I will do everything I can to get the ankle back to its best possible condition.

She will use a cadaver ligament to connect my tibia to by foot by weaving it in and out of my bone. The Doc may have to put a cage like device that protrudes from my lower leg in order to keep everything in place for a few weeks during initial recovery. We shall see.

I am not going to google anything about this surgery or recovery as I don't want to get anything in my head that could make me think too much. I have a good doctor that only works on ankles and below the knee operations and I am taking her word.

I can expect arthritis in that ankle in the future and that is okay,,I was expecting arthritis due to genetics anyway. I now know what joint will be impacted first and I can take precautions to mitigate any future pain or loss of utility. Gotta stay positive.

What is going on?

What on earth is going on in this administration? I think that it can be safely stated that the theories out there claiming this is a deliberate tactic of the White House to control the narrative is blatantly false. Every passing day the administration only further damages its reputation by allowing such high levels of entropy to exist. Such a strategy could not be by intent, and only that of people who are complete neophytes to the political world and the micro universe that is modern Washington D.C. 

As the administration attempts to go about things as normal it is losing valuable political capital and the momentum garnered by being in the first 100 days of a new President. It has already been challenged in numerous ways. North Korea and Iran via ballistic missile test flights, Russia buzzed a US navy destroyer in the Black Sea and has a intelligence ship off the eastern US coast. 

The only nation yet to challenge Trump has been the one that may impose the greatest test, China.  China may be sitting back and biding its time, prepared to intentionally set off a crisis that could have the potential to extensively damage US credibility in Asia. For now the Chinese leadership may be sizing up Trump and determining how a crisis could unfold and how to use it to their domestic and international advantage. As most know almost everything China does on the international stage is for domestic consumption and propaganda. Thus if a large degree of ambiguity exists in a Chinese course of action it is more likely to be shelved.

Trump's Chaos, from 28Jan17

Will Trumps chaotic leadership style in the White House help or hurt American interests and security?

Here are my thoughts broken down by topic.

Russia.
Russia is an old hat at working in a chaotic world and Putin being the cold warrior he is will have no problem dealing with any ambiguity that Trump shows. If anything Trump has exhibited a very stable and open mindedness regarding relations with Russia under his administration.  Trump has signaled he wants to team with Russia to defeat terrorism but has not signaled a willingness to back up eastern European nations that feel threatened by Russia. At the same time he has expressed opposite views on the future of NATO.
[ Since the initial writing of thi on 28Jan17, Trump as stated his full support for NATO with UK PM May. He has yet to back our eastern european NATO allies specifically and thus I stand by the benchmark of US exercises in Poland and the Baltics as to Trump's true intentions]
It will be telling to see if Trump continues with increased US military maneuvers in eastern Europe that was bolstered by Obama over the past few years.  A continuation of this policy will put questions in Putin’s head regarding US predictability going forward in Europe.

NATO.
I see it highly unlikely that Trump will reduce America’s role in Nato as long as our fellow allies agree to fund more of their own defenses.  Angela Merkel and UK PM Theresa May have both agreed that NATO members should pay their fair share and meet the minimum defense spending requirement of 2% of GDP. In fact the UK is one of only a few NATO members that meets the threshold while Germany has stated it will soon meet the standard.

If progress is seen in this area of contention Trump will probably not waiver from America’s commitment to NATO and peace in Europe.

The one area


China (PRC) challenge.
The last two Presidents were confronted with international crisis regarding China. In 2001 US and PRC military aircraft collided over the SCS. One PRC pilot was killed in his fighter while a US crew in a surveillance aircraft made an emergency landing in PRC territory and held for over a week while their aircraft was investigated. Eventually all US personnel and equipment was returned. Neither nation issued an apology.

In 2009 PRC navy ships hounded a US navy surveillance ship in the SCS while it was conducting operations. PRC  and attempted to damage or retrieve its towed sonar array and almost caused a collision by dropping debris in front of the USNS Impeccable. No casualties were recorded and the PRC backed down once the US sent a destroyer to escort the civilian manned USNS ship.

During the campaign and now as President Trump has stated he will be tough with regards to t PRC claims of sovereignty over man made islands in the SCS and the right for freedom of navigation and trade. Since this talk has transpired over to the administration the likelihood of a PRC provocation is lower. The PRC is much less likely to risk a conflict, despite being near its home turf and fielding a more capable military, because it knows Trump is unpredictable and may not react as calmly as Bush and Obama did.
An unexpected outcome that could damage the PRC reputation or make them look bad would be a loss for the communist regime. Everything the communist regime does is in some aspect directly tied to legitimizing its rule in the eyes of its 1.4 billion citizens. A loss of face due to an unexpected US response could lessen its viability domestically. The Chinese hate to lose face, and Trump’s chaotic nature may prevent any PRC provocation.

North Korea.
This is the biggest unknown. NK is in a pure survival mode. Its not concerned about gaining territory, opening up trade or improving its economy. The regime only wants to survive at the expense of its citizens.   More to follow.


Iran.

Well, before I could even get to Iran they launched a ballistic missile in violation of a UN resolution.  I do not know what to say but this is his first international issue that goes against his hardline talk during the campaign.

This launch probably was coincidental with a pre planned operation to test Trump but just coincided with them promising retaliation for the immigration executive order Trump signed on 28Jan17.  Whether this is the only thing Iran will do is highly doubtful. They could break deals with Boeing and other US companies and take their business elsewhere, or prohibit US businessmen from entering Iran. This would, however, have negative impacts on their economy which is desperate for foreign investment and technology. A more realistic response would be for Iran to harass US naval vessels in the Arabian Gulf to increase tensions.

Gutter cleaning

On 26Jan2017 while playing fetch with our new Belgian Malinois, Zeus, I launched the ball on the roof of our porch which lodged itself on one of the skylights. Being me, I figured why not get the ball and perform some gutter and leaf removal on the roof since I am up there. Make sense right?

That was a bad decision, among others.  After dislodging the ball I hauled up the cordless leaf blower to blow off the accumulated mess of pine needles and leaves from past storms.

With leaf removal somewhat complete I went on the front gutter by our front door. Its at a 90 degree angle and was completely clogged. After about 5 minutes of removing debris I began to slip and tumbled off the roof and landed on the grass right next to the front flag pole.

It was a slow motion event where everything slowed down and I realized I was in deep do-do. For some reason the training i received during my short three weeks and 5 jumps at Army airborne school kicked in and I tried to break my fall as trained 15 years ago.  I had to break my my fall to protect my head and back by.

I landed almost square on my my feet with my right leg taking the brunt of the impact. I did manage to save all the important parts and didnt have a single injury anywhere but my lower legs.

As I lay there my initial thought wasn't about my leg or the fact I could see the bone,,it was that I would now add undue stress to the family. 

My right leg sustained an open ankle fracture and comminuted fibula fracture(shattered into 8 pieces) while my left  foot sustained a bad bruise on the heal. With the right ankle out and bleeding I realized 911was in the future.

I  low crawled through the front door to get to the phone to call 911.  While in the house i continued crawling to let Zeus inside and in his crate so he wouldnt interfere with the first responders.   Zeus being the intelligent dog he is realized something was wrong and gratefully went into his crate when ordered to do so. I then called 911, crawled back out side so they would see me and did some self first aid.

An ER visit that day and had surgery on 3Feb2017. After initial pain I am experiencing very little to no pain and have a knee scooter get around. I am able to cook, perform some basic cleaning chores and play with the dog outside. I keep the leg elevated as much as possible and stretch a few times a day in addition to light upper body workouts with kettle bells to help with cardio and upper body strength.