Final Exam Questions

 

 

Q1: Consider the following quotation made from the Department of Homeland Security:

‘‘Today’s terrorists can strike at any place, at any time, and with virtually any weapon’’.

Address this argument critically using the evidence we have examined this semester about the constraints on violent action.

- Would you broadly agree with the DHS’s suggestion? 
- Would you agree only in part? 
- Do you disagree? 
- Why?

I broadly agree with this suggestion but with limitations with regards to terrorist’s ability to attack with any weapon. 

Today we live in a very interconnected and distributed world. The globe is interconnected physically through modern transportation networks and electronically through the internet and other global forms of communications. Modern technology makes it easy for terrorists to communicate, foster ideas, recruit and train perspective members. All without having to leave their home nation. When the time comes to physically move it is quite easy to get a flight or boat ride to any point on earth.  These characteristics of the modern world make it very easy for terror groups to execute operations nearly anywhere on earth. 100 years ago this was not nearly as possible and terrorism was largely confined to nations and regions unless the movement took on a global following such as communism. In this regard it was a global movement but still required physical proximity to be successful. 

The part I disagree with is the weapons part of the statement.  Terrorist, fortunately, have not been able to get hold of weapons of mass destruction (WMD)thus far, or use them in a manner that would make them very effective. The most effective terror attacks using chemical weapons was subway  attack in Japan that was no more destructive than attacks carried out with traditional explosives. It was the psychological effect that had a greater long term impact it seems.  Nuclear weapons have not been used by terrorist thus far and while it remains a possibility the worlds nuclear powers take extraordinary measures to prevent the spread of the manufacturing process and the spread of the weapons themselves. Nations like N.Korea could choose to use them or give them to terrorists but that would most likely mean the destruction of the N.Korean regime, something they want to avoid. I believe N.Korea is a rational actor and secured nukes to help secure the existence of the Kim regime. 

Some reasons terror groups may not use WMD:

Using chemical weapons is brutal but the public at large does not realize how difficult it is to effectively employ chemical weapons. The method in which they are released, the weather and the target characteristics all must be nearly perfect for chemical weapons to be destructive. Any flaw in the employment of them negates their impacts. 

Using a nuke could incur the wrath of the targeted nation and the response would probably be the destruction of the offending terror group.

The use of WMD could have negative connotations to groups wanting to use them. They can be seen as too extreme. 

In summary, WMD are not easily employed by terrorists and the DHS statement was perhaps a bit too pessimistic in this regards. Terrorists could use WMDs but the consequences they would face make it an unappealing option.

 

Q2: What is the best method to countering an insurgent group’s plan to utilize Weapons of Mass Destruction?

I believe the best method to counter an insurgent group’s plan to use WMD has two parts.

1. Deterrence.  Peg the use of WMDs to consequences so high to offending groups they do not devote enough resources to acquire them, let alone use them.  This comes in the form of developing and communicating national policy concerning the use of WMDs against a nation and its citizens. 

2. Security and non-proliferation.  Secure existing WMDs and the knowledge associated with their development and manufacture.  The greatest of all WMDs are nuclear weapons. Chemical weapons while horrible, pale in comparison to the effects a nuclear blast would have on a populated city. Everything must be just right for chemical weapons to be effectively employed, such as delivery method, weather and characteristics of the target.  Nukes are devastating regardless of the weather and target. 

Nations with nukes such as the US, Russia and China must keep their arsenals secure, and their knowledge in house. Beyond that nations need to keep tight control of the most critical components of WMDs. For nukes this is highly enriched uranium. As a result international systems exist that track where inputs to weapons grade uranium is going to. The international effort focused on Iran is a good example of securing WMDs. 

N. Korea would serve as a good example of poor non-proliferation efforts. The US and its allies tried for decades to prevent N.Korea from developing a nuke but failed because the knowledge and materials required to make a bomb was smuggled into N.Korea through a network of enabling states like China, Russia and Pakistan. 

Through deterrence and non-proliferation efforts the world can limit the ability of terror or insurgent groups to get hold of WMDs. It requires a cooperative movement and as we experienced with N.Korea if everyone is not on the same page WMDs can and will spread. 

 

Q4: Experts frequently highlight the current day threat of lone-actor terrorism.   
- Does this threat represent a strength of modern day insurgencies or is it a response to their own weakness?

I believe this represents a strength of modern insurgencies. They are taking advantage of the technologies that fundamentally facilitate the recruitment, training and use of lone wolves. It would unnatural for insurgency groups not to encourage lone wolves unless it was specifically against their goals.  Lone wolf attacks have turned ISIS, a mid east based movement, into a globally feared entity that uses the internet to recruit and train.  Without lone wolves they would not be able to strike out against nations like the US and its allies so easily. 

Lone wolves provide a major advantage that make them assets to insurgencies. This major advantage is the fact that lone wolves are difficult to identify. When insurgencies use or encourage lone wolves of they are often only identify after the damage has been done. The lone wolves are normally in receive mode with regards to communicating with the insurgents. And the insurgents may not even know if they are creating lone wolves until an attack takes place. How does one counter that? If the insurgents don’t know when the attack is coming how will the intelligence agency monitoring them know. They will not. 

A second advantage is the level of fear lone wolves instill into populations and governments. Look at how Europe reacted to lone wolve driving attacks. Streets were reconfigured to prevent vehicle traffic. Here in the US most major monuments and locations in Washington DC are now off limits to vehicle traffic and even some pedestrian traffic out of fear of lone wolves. We are now patted down and go through metal detectors prior to attending a football or baseball game. These are things that began after the threat of lone wolves became real. 

 

Q6: Is there a growing crime-terror nexus?   
- What are the implications for counter-terrorism?

I don’t believe there is a growing crime-terror nexus to the extent we see dual purpose international crime and terror entities. They perhaps transform from one to another but in the end  they are not compatible.  Why?

The purpose of crime is to make money. Plan and simple. Crime organizations such as drug cartels can use terror as a tactic that keeps law enforcement busy fighting terrorists while the cartel cranks out the cocaine. Or they can use terror to influence govt policy with the aim of increasing their revenue. Crime in the end is all about profits. Terror is just a tool.

The purpose of terrorism is to inflict some change of behavior on a society or government. Just as a drug cartel can use terror to help sustain profits a terror organization can use crime to Fund its terror operations.  Kidnapping is and was a major revenue stream for terrorists in Iraq at the height of the US occupation. Al Qaida in Iraq was not kidnapping because they liked to kidnap but because they needed money to fund their ops against the US. Emplacing an IED that targets US forces cost money, and often this money would come from crime. That is why the US placed a high priority on developing Iraqi police forces. The mission of the Iraqi police in many areas was to cut back on crime in order to financially starve terror groups. 

If you have a terror group grinding the economy to a halt that is not generally good for a crime cartel, unless the purpose of the crime is to fund the terror group. That makes it a terror group. A crime cartel relys on a somewhat stable society and economy to maximize the money its making. Drug cartels in S. America thrive because of stable societies and weak governments. If a terror group were to intervene it would put at risk the drug cartel’s bread and butter operations, drug manufacturing and smuggling. The environment would not be crime business friendly. 

There may be times when a terror group converts to a criminal syndicate or vise versa but for the most part crime and terror are in a symbiotic relationship as opposed to multinational terror-crime syndicate. This, however, does not mean there are no impacts for counter-terrorism operations.  

Counter terror (CT) ops and policy must also morph with along with the criminals and terrorists. CT organizations must include more expertise in crime among the ranks and must consider how fighting crime can also help fight terror. As with the Iraq example above, if you target a terror groups funding you are targeting its very existence. Understanding crime can help understand and undermine terrorism. CT organizations need to expand their thinking when it comes to their mission and include crime in the equation as the relationship between crime and terror groups grow closer. 

Some cases of Psychosis May be Caused by Microbes and Viruses

Did you know that? I didn't, until recently, while reading the book "The Wildlife of our Bodies" by Rob Dunn. 

Apparently there is a little protozoan called Toxoplasma gondii and a virus called cytomegalovirus that can literally cause you to develop psychosis. 

That a little organism can cause such problems in humans really shouldn't be a big surprise. We are, after all, just another organism that is nothing but a complicated series of chemical reactions, electricity and of course the big difference of having a soul and the ability to manipulate our environment to the extent we do. These little dudes mess with that chemistry in the brain and all hell breaks loose. 

That led me to wonder what exactly psychosis means? Lots of people use terms like "psycho" or "psychotic" to describe someone with mental health issues. That is not the case and there is a whole lot the nation should learn.  This is what I discovered.

There are several types of personality or mental health issues. The whole attempt to classify them is confusing to non mental health providers and even to them in some regards.

But you have are a few basic types. Psychosis, psychopathy and social psychopathy. 

Having bi polar disorder is a form of psychosis. You live an an alternate reality of sorts. This also includes schizophrenia. 

Psychopathy is when people cannot relate or form bonds with others, are full of rage and generally not compatible with society.

Sociopaths are the opposite. They will become your best friend with the sole purpose of wanting to kill you. 

Even this is debated in the medical world. I found many articles calling Jeffery Dahmer sociopath, while many also called him a psychopath. Its beyond my understanding so check out the references. You can also look up the DSM-5, the "bible" for mental health and personality disorders. The DSM 5 is here: 

https://cdn.website-editor.net/30f11123991548a0af708722d458e476/files/uploaded/DSM%2520V.pdf

Ref:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/wicked-deeds/201801/the-differences-between-psychopaths-and-sociopaths

https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/psychotic-psychopath-difference

Retro Piece #2. Contemporaneous Commentary on the Great Trade War with China.

 Oh Lord America! Here is a running log I kept during the trade war with China. Its ongoing commentary with some predictions by yours truly.  I got so tired of this "war" I think I just started pasting links. Inputs are from Aug2019 - 30Jan2020.

There are few funny moments in there. Like when I reference an agreement made between the US and China in Chile:

31 October 2019
I am at the point I just googled “China Trade” and pasted this link.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/trump-says-new-location-for-signing-of-phase-one-of-us-china-trade-deal-will-be-announced-soon.html
 
Basically we were to sign an agreement that really said nothing in Chile, however Chile is in the midst of a civil war or whatever they do down there. That’s on hold and China is expressing doubts as to Trumps sincerity.

My take:
China is waiting for the election. Plain and simple. They hope a dem gets elected. I just hope the dems or whoever takes over for Trump maintains a very hard stance against China. We need this.

-----------------

Over the past 24 hours the trade war that has been ongoing between the US and China has, in my opinion, taken a massive shift. What was once a seemingly semi-controlled rational affair now seems to have taken a nose dive towards unregulated escalation thanks to Trump’s immediate and unexpected retaliatory tariffs he imposed on China after China hit the US with new tariffs 24 hours prior.  This immediate escalation came with zero warning and is a new low with regards to how Trump will make a decision without considering outside advice or the repercussions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/23/business/china-tariffs-trump.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

WASHINGTON — President Trump said he would increase taxes on all Chinese goods and demanded that American companies stop doing business with China as his anger toward Beijing and his Federal Reserve chair boiled over on Friday.

Twelve hours after China said it would retaliate against Mr. Trump’s next round of tariffs by raising taxes on American goods, Mr. Trump said he would bolster existing tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods to 30 percent from 25 percent on Oct. 1.

And he said the United States would tax an additional $300 billion worth of Chinese imports at a 15 percent rate, rather than the 10 percent he had initially planned. Those levies go into effect on Sept. 1.

 

 

At this point in time I personally have lost track of the tradewar’s timeline. I know we started it, China responded and we responded to that. It seemed okay and somewhat managed until 21August 2019. When China announced the above tariffs, Trump seem to have blown a fuse. Earlier on 23Aug Trump said he wanted US corporations to decouple from China which led to these new Chinese tariffs. This led to Chinese tariffs,,,which, In a snap decision tonight Trump tweeted the new higher tariffs. WTF? 

Earlier this month Trump said he would postpone some tariffs on high tech china imports until later this year in an attempt to appease the markets that were gearing up for xmas consumer production and purchasing. 

That backfired. I think this latest round led by the Chinese was sparked by increasing tough talk from Washington that was unusually united. Normally the Trump admin is all over the place regarding any policy but especially so with regards to trade and the trade war with China. Even GOP members on the Hill are at a loss of words.  The fact the admin was united somewhat in confronting increasing militaristic stance toward the demonstrations in Hong Kong may have pushed Xi to attack the US in an attempt to quiet Trump. This only emboldened him. Xi also may be looking for way to appear strong despite the ongoing Hong Kong issue. This blew up in Xi’s face as there is little that China can do trade wise from my understanding to hurt the US. If they were to cut off trade it would put millions of Chinese workers out of work and that would break the implicit pact the CCP has with the Chinese people,,,,work and economic stability for no freedoms. They will want freedom if the chicoms cant keep them employed. 

This is where we got China. We got them socially. They think they can meddle in our elections to get what they want. In a way they can but they don’t fully understand how we work here. We may be politically fractured but if confronted we will rally behind the government. China may do the same but they have hundreds of millions of people that are socially fractured and just waiting for a blow to make the separation a disaster. Socially the US is fine,,we disagree politically but when it comes to social issues they will take a backseat to our existence. China,,,the ruling class must be worried now as a sharp economic downturn will cause pain and the people know who to blame. The CCP.

I believe Americans would have some social issues and demonstrations but that is always the case here. A lot of people may lose jobs but you will not see society uprise because we still have our basic freedoms. In China, a sharp downturn would cause middle and lower mid class families to lose what economic success they had but have no other freedoms to fall back on. 

I think we have to take the following into consideration:

-       China’s economy is based on exports. US is not.

-       US economy is based on consumption and services. China supplies much of the consumer items.

-       These consumer items often start here as high value sub-parts to high end items. These items have most value added in the US, Japan, Taiwan, SK or Europe. China only assembles most of these things that are then shipped back to the US.

-       Its not easy finding new assembly lines to make these items and thus prices will rise. 

-       These items are not consumable and in theory we can stand not to replace a TV every 2 years or need 4 TVs in one house. 

-       Regular consumables such as cheap clothing will hit the lower and lower middle class harder than most. 

-       This can be offset by relocating production facilities out of China to cheaper nations such as Vietnam or India. This is already happening and will only quicken if the trade war continues.

-       A CONTINUING TRADE WAR IS ONE CHINA CAN ONLY LOSE!

o   Low value added manufacturing is already moving from China

o   US companies have absorbed the trade war cost already

o   US consumer may be willing to accept higher prices in the short or even mid range terms

o   US farmer are the hardest hit but new markets can be found or the govt can put the surplus to use by providing aid to developing nations.

§  This farmer aid could move soy products to USAID which can directly confront crappy Chinese infrastructure products that are built using imported Chinese labor.

§  China is focused on feeding itself not others. The US can do this by buy up US agriculture products and giving them to developing nations that China is in. 

§  A direct marketing campaign must be developed to show these nations what the US is doing compared to China. US is providing food,,China is building crappy roads and not teaching citizens skills.

1400 on 24Aug

Its been about 12 hours after Trump announced his spur of the moment tariffs and the news media is not freaking out as much as I thought they would. As usual the NYT and Washington Post had headlines regarding the news but they were not groundbreaking to the extent I expected. 

I expected massive headlines and constant coverage from CNN. Instead it was taken in stride as if it were a normal thing. I view this development or lack there of as either complicit agreement with Trump’s actions or journalist and news outlets know it will not generate the views. I tend to lean toward their agreement with Trumps actions. 

This is significant.

 

27Aug 2200

So far there hasn’t been too much overwhelming news about the trade war. Things have mostly focused on how Trump has flipped flopped on his China policy but I take the medias lack of enviserating trump as a positive. The media knows China must be dealt with,,they just don’t like how Trump is doing it. 

For that matter neither do I but at least China is being confronted about it. 

Today’s articles focused on how US industries such as auto and farmers will be impacted by a prolonged trade war.  Other articles have claimed that China is brushing us off and riding it out in hopes Trump will lose the election and a dem will take over and reverse the trade policies. I don’t see this happening in the US. China’s unfair and predatory trade practices have finally been brought to the surface and the American people seem to be willing to accept a certain level of hardship in order to bring China back in line with the international system that has contributed to their success.

 

 

2020 Election

China is trying to ride this out. This has been evident from the start but it wasn’t until recently that Beijing realized this may go on for some time. Trump keeps doubling down and so far the US public is behind him,,along with corporate America. If Trump loses the election a democrat will have two stark choices. Maintain the trade war or back down and be seen as week. This will put him down as having backed down to China and essentially lost a war.  Trump must keep elevating this issue to make it the number one issue of the 2020 Election. The US can not afford to lose to Beijing. I think a negotiated settlement of trade hostilities would benefit both sides.

A new democratic POTUS should immediately initiate talks with Beijing but also enlist European and Asian allies to confront China from all sides. This can end the trade war and let the global economy continue on. This is even more critical if the US and the world in general is in recession.

 

Success of trade war vs Reccession.

That is the key point. The real test will be if/when the US economy hits a recession. Will that inflict enough pain that Americans will call for an end to the trade war. If that is the case I believe China will feel more emboldened and powerful than ever. It will be a world turning point that history will look back on. The US will possibly be seen as the loser. 

All we need is to keep the pressure on China as the communist govt there has more to lose than western democracies. The CCP relies upon a thriving economy to remain in power and to prevent a revolution. 

 

Mistake at G7

To Me: As many new outlets stated Trump should have forged an anti-Chinese alliance at the G7 meeting in France. The sole purpose of this alliance would be to coordinate trade policy towards China in order to allow greater western penetration of Chinese markets, prevent Chinese industrial espionage and technology transfers and overall destabilizing Chinese trade practices.

 

29Aug Update

A lack of significant new on the trade war from either side to me indicates the Chinese are happy with the lack of attention it drew at the G7 meeting. China’s long game may be taking shape and settling in. A preview on the democratic side was released today. O’Rourke released a tentative plan that would end all tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for an end to all tariffs on US goods imported into China. It would also call for a retooling of WTO rules that impact China’s ability to steal information and reduce its protectionist policies that should have been eliminated upon their entry into the WTO in 2001. 

To me this indicates the dems are quietly backing the trade war in principle but not how its being done. A more thorough and methodical approach, they seem to believe is required. A united front between the EU and US would also go along way.

 

5Sep19

Not much has been in the news the past week. Today it was announced that China and the US would resume trade talks. https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/04/business/us-china-trade-war-talks/index.html

Prior to that announcement the big news was that America would be enforcing tariffs on another $110B + of Chinese shit. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/01/trump-says-trade-talks-still-planned-for-sept-after-china-tariffs-go-into-effect.html

Trump postponed tariffs on consumer oriented goods until 15Dec2019 back in mid august. This was to spur sales for the holiday season in the US.

 

 

These are some headlines as of 5Sep regarding the current state of the trade war. One can see there are many opinions from many different schools of thought on who is winning, if there is a winner in a trade war.

The one thing that grabbed my attention was the possibility of Chinese companies trying to establish their own nation as a source of new customers and growth. While I believe this may be difficult to achieve especially since western companies dominate the high end of consumer goods and also provide the high tech components of goods made in China. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-manufacturers/no-place-like-home-chinese-firms-stung-by-trade-war-build-up-domestic-brands-idUSKCN1VQ2W4

 

No major breakthroughs or movements by either side. I look forward to hearing any details about upcoming trade talks, if they do happen. I look to the US to maintain a hard stance since the US consumer base thus far is behind POTUS.  Once prices begin to increase during the fall holiday shopping season will be the real test of American resolve. If we make it through the next 4 months without a lot of complaining by the middle-class China may be forced to concede on some issues.

 

10 Sep.

Found this interesting.

It is odd that China has to stimulate its economy if they are not hurting from the trade war. Chinese state media claims all is well but the CCP just passed a massive stimulus bill. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/06/business/china-economy-reserve.html

The trade war is also having what I would hope to be intented consequences thought out by Trump prior to initiating hostilities. Manufactures are seeking other places to do business outside of China to escape US tariffs. This will lead to nations like India, Vietnam and maybe even some African nations to expand manufacturing sectors.

https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/vietnam-s-economy-gets-boost-from-us-china-trade-war-/5076302.html

 

This could have a few impacts.

1. China quickens its attempt to develop a domestic market.

2. Increased pollution from states quickly industrializing.

3. Another round of US factory closures as super cheap labor is once again available in these nations.

4. China could become more self sufficient with high tech manufacturing faster than we predicted.  https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/china-will-win-trade-war-reduce-reliance-on-us-tech-strategist.html

 

 

 

 

 

11Sep

Just read a tweet by POTUS that he is extending the deadline to increase tariffs on $350 B of Chinese goods from 1 Oct to 15Oct in honor of the Chinese commie party 70^th anniversary. 

We are in a pre-talk positioning stage right now. Both sides trying to set the board for a favorable outcome.

I think this may be a sign ahead of negotiations that the US is interested in making progress. While the US economy seems strong and China’s seems to be weakening it is China’s long game strategy vs Trumps short term goal of 2020 reelection that may be forcing this. Trump will need some sort of progress to alleviate US consumers from the trade war before election but still needs to maintain pressure on Beijing. China could face harsh domestic  unrest as the economy slows. Xi can not, in my opinion, rely on a staunch nationalistic approach in China. The Chinese people have tasted the good life and may want their economic success more than anything else.

 

17Sep.

Game Changer. Attack on Saudi Oil Infrastructure.

As I have been stating to friends and family the past few days. The attack on Saudi oil infrastructure by Iran or their proxies can only benefit the US in our trade war with China. China relies on ME oil way more than the US does. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/09/17/attack-on-saudi-oil-is-boon-for-trump-in-china-trade-war/#66fd56b61e49

This article illustrates that very clearly. 

Here is other info regarding the attack and how many saw this coming. I personally surprised it took this long for an attack like this to happen. These article sum up exactly what I was thinking immediately following the attack and subsequent release of info.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/29874/the-strike-on-saudi-oil-facilities-was-unprecedented-and-it-underscores-far-greater-issues

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/29864/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-attacks-on-saudi-arabias-oil-facilities

A few points that I immediately thought of when I saw the images released by Trump on Sunday.

1.    This attack was sophisticated and took technical talent and know how on how to target, mensurate the targets and attack them. Precision was incredible.

2.    While it appears SA was attacked from the North these munitions could have loitered around or flown a path to give the impression the point of origin was Iraq or Iran. Who knows.

3.    It is a matter of time until this happens to US infrastructure or our allies. I am thinking a drone launched from a container ship in the Gulf of Mexico that hits a refinery in Texas or Louisiana. I make this prediction on 17sep 2019 while at the VA.

I think what we are going to be seeing is a rush toward UAV defense and a general sense of paranoia from the government. 

Some questions:

-       Should corporations that operate critical infrastructure be given the authority to defend against UAVs? 

5Oct

The biggest thing that has happened in the trade war is that Trump requested China Investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter for any corrupt business deals while Biden was VP under Obama. This directly violated campaign law as Trump, in public and reporters, directly asked China to investigate Biden. This is soliciting something of value and is a crime if you ask me.  

Some analyst have stated, and I concur, that this is an overt invitation to China to make up some BS claims to feed to Trump. In turn Trump would most likely loosen the grasp he has on China’s economy as Trump is now leveraged and beholden to China.

Others believe it puts china in a awkward spot. I disagree.https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/05/world/asia/trump-china-biden.html

 

11Oct.

Sometime around this date Trump announced there was a preliminary trade agreement with China but the Chinese seemed to have missed the message. China wants more clarification on the issue of US tariffs that come into effect in Dec 2019. NYT is basically saying its BS and slight of hand. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/15/business/economy/china-trade-deal.html

 

Thoughts:

I think this is a way for Trump to pander to his base, deflect his recent decision to abandon the Kurds in Syria and refocus on trade. Trade is the one issue Trump believes he is doing well in and I think he actually has support of most of the nation regarding China. However,,,he gotta get results soon or farmers will turn. 

By announcing this BS agreement he is trying to take coverage off of this disastrous decision to pull out of Syria. It was made with ZERO consultation with State, Defense, NSC or anyone else other than Erdogan and probably Putin. It gave the ME over to Putin and caused a series of third order effects he didn’t see coming. His staff would have seen it but god forbid he use them.

The 2020 election is in one year and the farmers that constituted his base and helped him win in Wisconsin and PA must go thru another crop season that could be disasterous for them if Trump doesn’t quell the trade war. Regardless some market share in China may be permanently lost as the Chinese look to Brazil to fill the gap. This is also,according to some, expediting the destruction of the Amazon as farmers rush to fill the supply gap left by US exports of soy to China.

 

23 October 2019

Who the fuck knows what’s going on. NSTR.

31 October 2019

I am at the point I just googled “China Trade” and pasted this link.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/trump-says-new-location-for-signing-of-phase-one-of-us-china-trade-deal-will-be-announced-soon.html

 

Basically we were to sign an agreement that really said nothing in Chile, however Chile is in the midst of a civil war or whatever they do down there. That’s on hold and China is expressing doubts as to Trumps sincerity.

My take:

China is waiting for the election. Plain and simple. They hope a dem gets elected. I just hope the dems or whoever takes over for Trump maintains a very hard stance against China. We need this.

 

6Nov Trade update.

Still going on but China seems to be blinking as their econ signs dive. Trump is anxious to get a deal in principle before election. Both sides want an end.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3036440/china-needs-firmer-us-commitments-lifting-tariffs-if-donald

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/06/asia-stocks-november-6-us-china-trade-chinese-yuan-currencies.html

 

Assessment:

Beijing is playing the long game with HK and tradewar. They are willing to let the protestors protest as long as it doesn’t interrupt the economy too much. The trade war strategy is basic. Wait for Trump to lose in 2020 and then bet the next admin will bend to Chinese demands. This is why the US public must not forget the trade war and the unfair practices the Chiese govt promotes and supports.

 

14 Nov 2019.

 

China wants this over. Read: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/14/china-commerce-ministry-trade-war-should-be-ended-by-removing-tariffs.html

 

Despite what all of our experts and dems have stated the US has time on its side. Our economy is somehow doing well while China’s is on the verge of some troubles. The US can absorb them while the Chinese economy could do the same the public backlash is what worries Beijing.  The US is used to the business cycle, the new Chinese middle class is not and have a rude awakening when they experience their first recession.

 

22Nov 2019

 

Who the fuck knows whats going on now. Trump has the opportunity to sign a bill that supports Hong Kong but is threatening veto in order to please Xi as trade talks approach. Xi is playing Trump and probably promised him some BS concession if Trump doesn’t sign the bill. Signing the bill would be a big slap to China’s face and more importantly their perception among its citizens. 

The US has two options. 1. Trump vetos then Congress overrules it. 2. Trump signs it.

See here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/11/22/trump-says-he-might-veto-legislation-that-aims-protect-human-rights-hong-kong-because-bill-would-impact-china-trade-talks/

Trump keeps saying a deal is close but we are not even really talking. He is just blowing smoke.

 

Assessment:

I still believe China is just biding its time until after the nov 2020 election. If Trump wins they will try to bribe him…if he loses PRC will try to reset negotiating terms to where they were before Trump.

Overall I think Trump has been successful with this tactic. While it may be succeeding by just sheer luck as they put no thought into the plan it is having an impact on china by increasing economic pressure on Xi.  Perhaps this is a result of Trump being so removed from policy that the bureaucrats have the knowledge and skill to really make sanctions work. Trump isn’t known for being  a detail guy,,and lacking details the US govt can target things with broader authority. I doubt Trump doesn’t have a do not target list,,,he probably does but its his own properties.

BLUF: China will wait out. Talks will continue. China will begin a propaganda campaign against the Dem front runner to reduce tariffs. PRC will try to push farmers against Trump.

 

12Dec

The article below informs that if an agreement isn’t reached by 15Dec new tariffs will be levied on over $100B in Chinese goods.

  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cost-of-tariffs-trade-war-162712258.html

Over the past few months nothing has really happened. In a Foreign Affairs article, its stated that China may drop its boycott or tariff of US agriculture products so the US will drop some tariffs in order to spur their lagging economy. It went on to say that the Trump admin may be willing to drop some tariffs even without this concession by China. This is probably due to increasing burdens put on US farmers as the election approaches. I haven’t seen anything else to confirm that and other articles from Bloomberg stil maintain that no one knows whats going on.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2019-12-12/beyond-trade-war

 

I still believe Trump has no strategy and China has a wait and see strategy. However, China may still be willing to wait it out it can no longer afford to wait that long as its economy slugs along and the government faces scrutiny over its Uighar treatment and domestic protests in HK for freedoms.

All of these may lead to China actually increasing the purchase of US products but I don’t see a big change.  What I do see is that as the election closes Trump will basically create a big lie and announce a phony trade deal in order to boost his election chances. He will rely upon his base to believe him and not fact check.  Farmers will see through this as they will see the results if there are any. These farmers however may give Trump another shot to fix our trade relationship with China given the fact China has potentially signaled they want US produce again.

BLUF: Expect to see some erratic behavior from Trump. This includes exaggerated meeting results, false claims of agreements and just plain ignoring the facts.  His base will comply. China will maintain a hesitant stance but is willing to cave a bit to boost the CCP standing at home. This can be claimed by Xi as a win as they can spin it to their advantage despite the fact it was done to boost the Chinese economy.

 

30Jan2020

A few weeks ago Trump and China signed a “stage 1” agreement. What it entails isn’t very well known but its not the greatest deal and is mostly backed by promises from China with little means of enforcing them. Basically it was an election year ploy by Trump to get the word “trade war” off the campaign trail. For Xi,,it was a way to show progress at home during times of a slowing economy. Xi and most of the US government know that a big slow down in China will also mean a slow down in the US.

 

Way forward: I don’t see anything happening if Trump isn’t reelected. If he is I see more tariffs ahead. The Dems may try to strengthen our intellectual property protection and cyber theft of industrial secrets but that is it. Ohhh,,one alibi,,The Dems will push for more human rights in China.

 

Phase 2: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-01-30/phase-two-china-trade-deal-might-not-happen-yale-s-roach-says-video

 

Details: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/business/economy/china-trade-deal.html

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