I wrote the following in
January 2016 and it seems pretty spot on. The one point that disturbs me is the
prediction of a future ME war involving Israel and Iran. The past few weeks in
August 2019 have seen increased Israeli activity in Syria to counter Iranian
UAV operations. We have also seen Turkey kicked out of the F35 program because
they purchased and recently took delivery of a Russian S400 air and missile
defense system.
Syria.
Despite
the fact that “peace talks” are to begin in January 2016 its unlikely any
substantive result ensues. There are just too many variables and interests
between major powers. And just as in post WWI its most likely those who
actually occupy what was once Syria are afforded a voice in the process.
While this may not be intentional it will is more likely than not because of
the sheer level of chaos in the anti-Assad militias. This level of
uncertainty is forcing the outside powers to take responsibility for
establishing order and assist in the ever worsening humanitarian crisis that is
impacting ME and European nations.
That’s
why the most likely outcome in 2016 is the Assad regime consolidates control
over coastal Syria with the help of Russia while the West continues its half
hearted measures to defeat ISIS, of which Russia will not focus on until Assad
and its naval base are secure, and assist in the unprecedented humanitarian
crisis.
So if
history is any guide we are setting ourselves up for a future war in the Middle
East that could be an epic clash between Sunni, Shia, Turks and Kurds. This
does not even consider Israel, as they will no doubt intervene if they feel
threatened either by Hezbollah or a spreading ISIS.
So over three years have past since this was
written and its fairly accurate in my opinion with regards to the following
areas.
1.
Assad managed to hold
and retain control of the Syrian coast with the help of Russia. This was by
physical military support and advisory and material aid.
2.
The West (US and allied
forces) have continued its half hearted attempt to defeat ISIS physically while
having no other plan for a post ISIS plan in western Syria.
Figure 1. Situation
in Syria August 2019. Via Institute for the Study of War. http://www.understandingwar.org/publications?type%5B%5D=backgrounder&type%5B%5D=map&type%5B%5D=other_work&type%5B%5D=report&tid%5B%5D=324&field_lastname_value=&sort_by=created&sort_order=DESC
Below is the estimated situation at the end of 2015 to
beginning of 2016.
Figure 2. Syria
2015/early2016. http://www.understandingwar.org/map/russian-airstrikes-syria-december-22-2015-january-3-2016
