Thinking Ahead....Please read

Please read this article. No one thought ahead about the possibility that the F 35B (USMC version) could "burn a hole through the flight deck".

http://www.scout.com/military/warrior/story/1673548-navy-launches-2nd-america-class-amphib

China and N. Korea and why the NASA cant develop rockets like North Korea

4.5 acres of sovereign US territory. 

I ramble on here a bit regarding potential game changing Chinese action action against N.Korea, and why NASA should develop rockets like the Russians and N. Koreans.

Trump is apparently having some success influencing China to respond to N. Korean nuke tests. China is realizing the US means business under Trump, as opposed to the 8 years of Obama's do nothing policy towards N. Korea. Even the mouthpiece of the Chinese government, The Global Times, suggested increased sanctions against N.Korea if they test another nuke. The Chinese know Trump means business as his strikes against Syria and the movement of a carrier strike group to the Korean peninsula has shown he is willing to take decisive action.

As I mentioned earlier Obama adhered to a policy of lets just wait until N. Korea collapses. Meanwhile, the Kim regime wasn't going anywhere and just kept improving their nuclear and ballistic missile programs.  (disjointed transition to rocket development here)...

The 1st stage of a Space X Falcon 9 rocket that
 landed on a barge in the atlantic ocean after putting its payload in orbit.

While Obama did nothing Kim and his scientists improved their ballistic missiles through the old Soviet method of trial and error. Every rocket test the US declared a failure was actually a success for the N. Koreans as they learned from every mistake. Its incremental improvement. The NASA method takes longer as we are hesitant to have a failure on launch because they ar afraid to lose support of congress, and thus funding. NASA tries to engineer all of the bugs out before the first launch, this takes longer and is more expensive. Space X takes the approach of the Russians,,they are not afraid to fail and use each failure to learn more. Look at Space X failures at landing the first stage of a rocket,,many failures but they learned from each one and it's paying off now.

Now is the perfect time for China to challenge Trump, or not.

Im just following up on an earlier post regarding a crisis between the US and China. Considering increased tensions on the Korean peninsula and the middle east its probably a good time to look at this.

Earlier post.

https://containandisolate.blogspot.com/2017/02/when-will-china-challenge-trump.html

Many posts ago I put forth the idea that China would eventually challenge Trump as President. To judge how the new administration can handle a crisis. It would most likely come in the form of a military confrontation that would otherwise be routine  The script is familiar, and somewhat routine, Chinese military aircraft or naval vessels will confront its US peer on the  basis the US is violating, or coming close to violating Chinese territory.  This is routine in that nations do this all the time and was at its peak during the Cold War between NATO and the Soviet Union.

Historical Precedent.

China did just that to both George W. Bush and Barack Obama early in their administrations. In Obama’s case the Chinese attempted to physically damage a US navy surveillance ship in March of 2009.  During GWB’s first term the incident occurred in early April 2001, lasted for 10 days and resulted in the death of one Chinese fighter pilot and the capture and eventual repatriation of a US surveillance plane and its crew.

USNS Impeccable.
The ship involved in the March 2009 incident with China.
US Navy.

Thus far the Trump administration has not had to deal with this, but the time is ripe,,and we are in the historic window of when the Chinese pull these off. (I know this happening twice isnt exactly precedent but commies are usually predictable when it comes to such things.)  This is a great time for the Chinese to pull one of these off for two reasons. First, tensions are increased in China’s neighborhood due to N. Korea’s ballistic missile program and the more aggressive US posture in the region. Two, the US has already ratcheted up tensions with Russia by striking a Syrian air base. So now you basically have a very tense situation in the Middle East  and an increasingly tense situation in China’s backyard. An additional crisis instigated by China would serve as an excellent opportunity to judge the Trump administration’s ability to handle multiple crisis at once.  

There are obvious risk associate with this approach. China is a scripted government and loves predictability.  Trump is the antithesis to this approach.  Spur of the moment thinking does not make Beijing very comfortable and US chest thumping regarding military strikes against N. Korea’s nuke program exacerbates this problem.  Beijing knowing Trump’s spontaneous nature could miscalculate and push it too far,  sparking a crisis that does more than increase the pucker factor.  A second risk is that China’s military is increasingly confident due to better equipment, realistic training compared to what they had in the past and government encouraged nationalism. Add in the fact the Chinese believe the US is in decline both economically and militarily and you got yourself a big bowl of overconfidence soup.

I just hope the Trump folks are anticipating this and have a plan to stand our ground while avoiding a shooting war and demonstrating to our allies we got their back.

What is a Tomahawk?

A tomahawk cruise missile or TLAM (Tomahawk Land Attack Missile) as the military refers to it is a precision guided munition with a range of about 1000 miles. It is an extremely flexible weapon system in that it can be reprogrammed in-flight, hugs the ground as it flies near supersonic speed and can even loiter around for a bit while waiting for orders. 

They utilize radar, GPS and inertial guidance to navigate to the target. TLAMs can be programmed to follow very specific routes and uses a terrain matching system to avoid air defenses. In other words we can launch numerous TLAMs from a single point and have each one take a different route to the target. These weapons give the US a massive advantage of surprise.

TLAMs can be launched from submarines, destroyers, cruisers and aircraft. Due to treaty constraints the US does not have the capability to launch these missiles from ground units. Thus, the US primarily relies upon ships and subs to employ these beasts. This system is so significant that the US Navy converted 4 submarines to carry up to 150 TLAMs each. These submarines were initially designed  to carry 24 Trident II nuclear missiles but with the end of the cold war the Navy repurposed 4 of them to carry Tomahawks,,lots of Tomahawks. 

TLAMs are armed with conventional explosive warhead, and if that were not enough development is ongoing to utilize any remaining fuel as part of the explosive package. TLAMs are so accurate that they can be sent in waves with the first missile or two opening a hardened structure to allow successive rounds to enter the target for maximum effect and destruction.  

Loose Lips Sink Ships. Trump vs Obama.

1. Obama’s hypothetical comments regarding the April 2017 Syrian chemical weapons attack on civilians:

Okay people. A red line has been crossed. The US will retaliate at 3:43 am on 16April 2017 with 3 x B-1B bombers dropping 83 GBU-38, 500 pound JDAMs over the following 56 targets in the following target annex. It will be followed up with a raid conducted by Delta Force, SEAL Team Six and supported by Army rangers in Raqqa at the intersection of Broad St and Pattison Ave. next to the hoagie shop. They will arrive from the south east in a flight of Ospreys, Chinooks and Blackhawks escorted by 2 Apaches.  Our special operators will have beards and will be in civilian clothes with reflector belts for safety.

2. Trump’s real life response to a question regarding if the US is taking action against Syria:

“I’m not saying I’m doing anything one way or the other, but I’m certainly not going to be telling you, as much as I respect you, John.  Thank you.”

- President Donald Trump, White House 5April 2017.

Rod removal operation

Ahh,,I was in an out of the hospital this morning so the Doc could remove the external fixator that was keeping my ankle and leg in a fixed position over the past 6 weeks. This was to allow the ankle reconstruction to properly heal. 

The operation took 10 minutes! They gave me a partial knock out so I was home less than 2 hours after the procedure. 

Now its one week until I see the Doc again when she will put me in a boot or a hard cast. Dont matter to me. She said I will be able to put weight on the leg in as little as 4 weeks from now but its a game time decision she will make at the weekly appointments. 

Before, with external fixator, ie rods

After.

My right calf muscle, or what's left of it, is able to move while it rests in a open splint. This allows me to flex the muscle and begin the process of rebuilding the muscle. I was not able to flex the calf muscle until about a 2 weeks ago because the external fixator interfered too much with muscle movement and thus caused great pain. At least now I can get the muscle moving a little bit, which is better than none. 


My foot is another story. The skin is falling off as if I were molting like a snake. Since I couldn't wash it in the shower that dead skin has been building up and is coming off in layers. This sounds nasty but it gave me something to do when the rods were installed. You can only read, watch TV, lift kettlebells and write stuff for so long you know.  However, it gave me physical relief as the layers of dead skin were inhibiting my tactile sense in the foot and the ability to move my toes. That is how much dead skin was accumulating. I cant wait to see how nasty the foot is after I get it out of the cast.

China, Cuba and the US Embargo

Slick Willie!

Seems China is seeking closer ties to Cuba these days. This coming from the mouthpiece of the communist government, The People’s Daily. This means one thing, the Cuban communist party isn't going anywhere if the Chinese are allowed to entrench there. A Chinese military relationship with Cuba also means a heavy commercial and infrastructure investment.

This is a symbolic poke in the eye to the US and goes beyond a simple Chinese investment. The Chinese know the significance of Cuba in US politics and our history. They have invested in Central and South America but the potential investment in Cuba is a brazen move indicative of an increasingly confident Chinese government.  Heavy Chinese investment in the development of Cuba will only further entrench the ruling communist party led by the Castros. This is the antithesis of established US policy for over half a century.  

The US should take this as a signal that it’s losing its influence with our southern neighbors through outdated policies and indifference. I am referring to the US embargo on Cuba. While this may not be a traditional breach of the Monroe Doctrine, as China is not seeking to take control of Cuba, knowing China and its tendency to cozy up to and reinforce authoritarian regimes, we should perhaps consider this idea and take appropriate action, that being ending the embargo.

All one must do is look at China’s adventures in Africa and Asia. Their investments typically benefit the ruling elite and reinforce the status quo in order to provide a stable environment for the targeted Chinese investment. This is done by enticing governments with cheap infrastructure projects that are often built with lots of Chinese labor, while native populations get token benefits. As American author Howard French wrote “there was mounting resentment over the way China was seen to be…despoiling the environment, dispossessing powerless landholders or flouting local laws, fuelling corruption, and, most of all, empowering awful governments.”

Over 50 years have passed and the embargo has done nothing to effect positive change in Cuba.

While the US sits back and drives on with its useless embargo of Cuba the Chinese are seeking to open up an underdeveloped market, a market that the US should be focused on developing for our benefit and the benefit of the Cuban people. If the US were to further open up investment and drop the embargo we could do a lot more to help the impoverished Cuban people than China ever could. Freedom would most likely ensue. I am not talking of the neoconservative tendency to overthrow governments but the full opening of economic ties. If the Cubans still want communism let them have it but lets allow US capitalism to have access. Full US engagement with Cuba would, in the long run, increase the Cuban standard of living, human rights and their freedom.

This is not a case where China is going to position nuclear weapons or even conventional weapons on Cuba. China will probably take its usual course when investing in a new nation. Lots of shoddy infrastructure construction with plenty of Chinese workers while reinforcing authoritarian governments and sucking natural resources from the host nation. To offset this the US should consider ending the embargo or at least loosening more trade restrictions. This will allow US companies, while not socially or environmentally the best on earth, to gain a stronger foothold in the Cuban economy and help the Cuban people.  Jobs would be created and revenue generated. On the flip side, one can argue the communist regime will benefit the most. This is why I disagree.

For those arguing the Cuban government has a horrible human rights record and ending the embargo will strengthen the regime, I hear you, but you are half right. When was the last time you used an iphone or almost any other electronic device? Chances are it was fully or partially made in China. China is an authoritarian state that is on par with Cuba,,and worse when you look at China during the early days of the communist party (20 million dead due to the Great Leap Forward). Even today, Chinese citizens just disappear by the thousands every year. In Freedom House’s annual global freedom rankings China ranks 16th worst while Cuba comes in a close 15th place.

Look at past instances where communist nations opened up. In most cases the general population benefited. Look at China, 500 + million lifted out of absolute poverty, Vietnam, a rising Asian economic power will a growing middle class and eastern europe as a whole. Russia, is also doing better under its version of an open market, with regards to food lines and income. Yes the Cuban ruling elite would benefit but for how long? A lot longer if the Chinese have their way. The Cuban people are fans of the United States, not something the US has in abundance right now. The US should take of advantage of this opportunity before it’s too late and the Chinese prolong the authoritarian rule of Cuba.

We probably got a Putin problem here...

The term Hybrid warfare may become common in the media as this scandal unfolds in Washington. Here is a link on it.

Yes, while nothing has been proven in court yet, I have no doubt something is going down and it may be the classic case of the cover up is worse than the crime.

Why else would the GOP led Senate intel committee ask such pointed questions on 30 March?  A GOP member of the committee asked a former FBI agent if the administration was influenced by Russia,,,the answer was basically Yes. Start listening at 1 hour, 33 minute mark to see GOP Senator Lankford asks Mr. Watts why Russia was successful in manipulating the 2016 election. The response by former the former FBI agent  was that the Trump admin used Russian active measures against their opponents. Scary. Trump and his campaign were manipulated either unwittingly or intentionally by Russian fake news and twitter posts.

This is only going to get worse I believe.

South China Sea Part 1

This is a BIG deal. There are a few places on Earth where a major war could erupt between nuclear powers,,This is one of them. 

The South China Sea is disputed by many nations, has lots of trade pass through it and the nations disputing possession are in an arms race. 

Here is an interesting interactive map and article from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington D.C. think tank.  

https://amti.csis.org/chinas-big-three-near-completion/

[An excellent primer on Chinese SCS claims can be found HERE at the Council on Foreign Relations, publisher of the esteemed journal Foreign Affairs. ]

China claims most of the South China Sea (SCS)  based on a map called the “9 dash line” that dates way, way back to the mid 20th century. The Chinese claim this as evidence they have owned the islands of the SCS for centuries and thus the “territorial” waters around them. 

Despite the fact these “islands” are only reefs, and not islands it has not prevented the Chinese from occupying them.  Over the past few decades, with the most significant work being done over the past 5 years, the Chinese have created man-made islands out of these reefs. They have airfields, helipads, radar sites, fortifications along with facilities to garrison troops there. Quite industrious.

Many other nations claim areas of the SCS as you can see according to the map. The SCS is disputed for a few reasons, fishing rights, natural resources and trade routes. Lots of trade goes thru here and this trade is critical to the Chinese economy. If they can control these sea lanes they have greater flexibility if a conflict were to erupt.  The Chinese have the upper hand regardless of what courts say as possession is 9/10ths of the law, as is evident with Russia and the Crimea.  

The SCS has been the location of several incidents involving the Chinese military against the US, Vietnam and The Philippines, to name a few. The US conducts freedom of navigation operations near these islands to show our disapproval of Chinese occupation and fortification and to state these are international waters subject to no one single nation. 

If you look at the larger map you will notice that in order for trade to reach the SCS or leave the SCS to/from Europe, Africa or the M.E. its gotta go through some of the world's most heavily trafficked maritime choke points.  This will be a post for another day. Why control the SCS,,if you cant control access to it from the west?

My Congressman helped me,,,believe it or not.

All hope is not lost with Congress,,,at least at the individual representative level. My Congressman, Steve Scalise, of the great 1st District of Louisiana, helped me win a dispute with the Veterans Administration. The VA sent me a bill that I should not have received for a variety of reasons. It was for an amount in the 4 digit range. There was no way I should have to pay it and no way I was going to pay it. After a few calls to the VA admin they told me time and time again to lodge an official dispute. I did, but they gave me the wrong info and it went to the wrong office and is lost somewhere in the VA to this day.

I sent another packet, this time I verified with two different officials the correct location, and got a response. The response was that they were looking into it. My patience were wearing thin and after a call to the VA HQ in Washington I was told it may take a few months for them to figure this out.  No, I told them it should not. This is an open and shut case.

I had enough of the BS.

I contacted Congressman Scalise, who is also the House majority Whip, for his assistance.

Within days I received a personally signed letter from him stating his office would facilitate my complaint against the VA. I filled out the release forms he enclosed that allowed his staff to speak on my behalf and mailed them off to his office.  No kidding, within one week of submitting the release forms the VA hospital in Alexandria, LA called me. They said they received an inquiry from Rep. Scalise and want to resolve this issue ASAP.  

[I know how congressional inquires work as being a former Army officer I dealt with a few. Congressionals, as they are called, take an inquisitive approach and do not take for granted what the complainant is claiming is true. When dealing with Congressionals as an officer I responded or provided evidence that the servicemembers’ complaint was inaccurate, or substantiated. In every case I dealt with the soldier was wrong and that would be the end of story.

In my case with the VA I knew I was in the right and hence the call from the VA.

Had I been completely full of BS the VA would have provided evidence to the contrary of my claim to the congressman and I would have been informed to pay the bill.]

Making a long story short, Congressman Scalise’s office had set a fire under the VA hospitals’ ass and even the director was involved because of the seriousness of the charges I put forth. Malpractice and endangering my safety and well being just two of them.  In the end the entire mess was resolved completely in my favor.

This whole mess gives me a bit of confidence in our congress, specifically my representative.  It does not however improve my view of the VA. I have had nothing but bad experiences with the VA, this just continues this trend, a trend that spans over 9 years, 4 VA centers in three states. All three major hospitals, Hawaii, Hampton Roads and Alexandria, LA, have the same problems. Understaffed and overworked.  Where the hell is all of this money going? Every year congress gives the VA more money but yet nothing changes it seems. I know they are spending a lot on infrastructure, as they should, but perhaps more needs to be spent on competent employees.

Speaking of the infrastructure. The VA hospitals in Alexandria, LA and Hampton, VA were horrible and disgusting. They were being renovated but after 10 years of money being thrown at the VA they shouldn't be in the state they are. Example,,,the major VA hospital in New Orleans was destroyed during Katrina,,,it just now reopened in late 2016. Yep, 11 years it took the VA to build a new hospital. WTF?

I try to avoid the VA at all costs now, except the occasional correspondence regarding benefits and past and current claims. I know many are happy with the VA, and that is great, but I have not been so lucky. When at the VA my feelings are confirmed,,people have had either a great experience or a horrid one. I only hope the VA gets its act together so everyone gets the experience they deserve.

S-1C Engine

Most Powerful engine ever built,,,S1C.

Who launches the most important US national security satellite payloads? It is probably not the answer you would think. These payloads include ballistic missile early warning satellites, weather satellites, reconnaissance satellites and communication satellites. Answer. Russia. Yep. Since the 1990s the US Air Force, the organization responsible for placing national security payloads into orbit, has been reliant upon the Russian designed and built RD-180 booster engine to place its most important assets into orbit.

Why? Cost and reliability. The US has domestically produced engines that can do the job but not nearly as efficient as the RD-180. The RD 180 is powerful, has fewer parts and is easier to manufacture than the current US made RS-68/A engine. While the RS-68 powers the Delta IV rocket family, the worlds most powerful orbital launch system currently in service, it does so at a cost nearly 30% more expensive than the RD-180. Since the mid 1990s when the US and Russian governments agreed to this deal the US military became addicted to the RD-180 and little was done to find a domestically produced equal. This was the case until 2014 when congress finally authorized funding to produce an alternative in response to the Russian annexation of Crimea.  

Currently the US is on schedule to launch the AR-1 booster no earlier than 2019. That is if congress gets its ass together.

Thoughts

While the UK parliament is under assault I give you, think about it
who hit the UK?. Excuse all misspellings,,,my intern didnt do the job.

Cookin outside. 
Down here in Louisiana we can cook/grill outside year round. However, having been here since July 2016 I have only been through half of one summer but it was the hottest Ive ever been with the exception of being in the Kuwaiti desert with a full load of combat gear at 4am,,,before sunrise. Yes, those who have been in the M.E. know what im talking about. t. Its humid down here. During July and August of last year it was routinely around 135+ degrees F with an average humidity of 185%. Even during this past winter when it was in the 50s or 60s we had to run the A/C at home and at work due to the humidity. One thing makes up for it. THE FOOD. The food is,,,wellllll better than anything I have had except the dolma the Kirkuk Police gave me in 2007. 

Topic Two

Picky Dog. 
Zeus, Our pure breed Belgian Malnois.  Is the only dog, when it comes to eating whatever falls on the floor,  that I have ever seen or heard of, that fails at this.  We first learned this when he refused to eat a treat.

 Just sniffed it then trotted away in disgust. He then refused to eat certain crackers that were dropped on the floor by accident. One of the most important tasks a dog can perform is floor clean up. 

If food hits the floor, the only acceptable exception being veggies, the dog should instantly eat it up. Liquids, meat, snacks, whatever, as long as it ain't bad for them. Zeus fails at this. 

Its his only weak point, he is smart, athletic, protective, listenes, doesn’t jump, and is very good with kids.  

We bought the dog new dog food the other day on the recommendation of our Vet. He will not eat it. After barely eating it for 2 days I decided its time to act as I don’t want him going hungry and eating the sofa. I added a bit of chicken stock to his food and sure as hell he ate it up. Now its probably just a matter of time until Zeus catches on and demands more and more stock until we exhaust our budget on this. 


Pre “COOKED” lasagna ribbons.
My friend J.D. gave me a topic about pre cooked lazanya noodles, (S.E. pennsylvania annunciation). I agreed, they are BS. I tried them once and they taste like boiled cardboard,,,not the amazon box cardboard but the big stuff you get at the UPS store when you want to ship an important thing. Lacks texture. Im on one leg and wouldnt even try to feed this to my family…….

But if it did,,,,

Here is my plan.  Boil water. ,,Id quickly dish the boiling water in dishes that need to be cleaned,  then call the local delivery joint for some lazanya, delivery of course. My wife would know but in the end its all okay as the family is fed. 

North Korea. Rational Actor. Perhaps.

During Sec of State Tillerson’s recent trip to Asia he made it very clear that Obama’s policy towards N. Korea, known as strategic patience was over. What was strategic patience? In my opinion it was non engagement and as others have said, collapsism.  What this will be replaced with is yet to be seen but Tillerson upped the ante by stating no options were off the table, a euphemism for military action is possible.

S.Korea, N.Korea and China at night. Source.

There are many theories out there as to how we should deal with N.Korea’s nuclear and ICBM programs and none of them seem to be very good options. N. Korea is too close to getting a viable nuclear warhead and an ICBM with which to threaten its adversaries. Any diplomatic venture would require months, if not years, to complete within which time the North could easily field an operational nuclear deterrent, perhaps with several delivery options.

Here are some options that are bouncing around out there. The last one is my oddball theory.

Chinese Pressure.
I doubt this will work as China wants a N.Korea regime on its border as a buffer. The Chinese like the status quo. The US could enact sanctions against China if they don't force N. Korea to change its ways, but that could lead to a trade war.  This would be devastating to both economies. 

Talks.
Talks have never worked in the past and the N.Koreans have played us, with the aid of China, every time. Unless we get assurances of China and concessions from N.Korea before we act on our part this is not worth it. It only buys N. Korea time. One way this could work would be a credible threat of a US strike against N.Korea, as it would realize China’s greatest fear, a war. See the last option regarding this.

Deal with it.
This is the most likely thing that will happen. No one wants a nuclear NK but it has already happened. The problem with dealing with it is the North will conduct nuclear blackmail when it wants something from us. While it is doubtful they would ever use their nukes, they could threaten to proliferate them to terrorist groups that wouldn't hesitate to set off a nuke in the US.  This would be an indirect blackmail they could hang over our heads. However grim this seems we must develop a strategy to deal with this outcome.

Strike N. Korea, or at least a credible threat.
 Most articles you read and experts would say this course of action would likely cause a war. I tend to agree but have a theory as to why it may not. And a strike could actually be possible, or at least the threat of a strike. The purpose of this legitimate threat would be to drive N.Korea to the negotiation table. But it must be credible. 

My theory is simple. The Kim regime is a rational actor. The Kim regime only wants to stay in power it may actually suck it up and only retaliate with sabotage and perhaps some limited shelling of border towns. Why? While any shelling of S. Korean towns and cities would cause mass panic and casualties it would surely invite swift retaliation and the potential massive degradation of N.Korea’s conventional artillery forces. These forces have been the most potent threat for decades, especially due to their large chemical weapons stash.  

Before I go further any strike against N.Korea would require the implicit approval, support and participation of South Korea. It is they who will decide this, not the US.

The threat against Seoul is also not as great as most think. Only N.Korea’s most capable and modern artillery pieces, mostly rocket, would be able to range the most densely populated parts of Seoul. And even then this artillery would have to be placed in potentially less than optimal positions within range of Seoul. That makes it easier for S. Korea and the US to target and destroy these pieces. That is not to minimize the panic and casualties it would cause but Seoul would not be wiped out. 

Would the Kim regime be willing to risk its most effective conventional weapons in the event they lost their nuclear and ICBM programs?  I would think not as they would be even more vulnerable than before and a full scale war would certainly put the Kim regime out of business. The Kim regime is more rational than most believe. As history has shown us thru famine, drought and purges the Kim regime is not interested in maintaining a thriving society, its only interest is to enrich itself, and it does this by maintaining an iron grip on power. 

The big wild card in this would be China. How would they react to US airstrikes being conducted so close to its border? China’s biggest fear would be the implosion of the N.Korean regime. That would create a humanitarian crisis along the Yalu river and most likely position US and S.Korean troops even closer to China as they attempt to regain control in NK. This would be bad in domestic politics for the ruling communist party. As I have said before, the Communist party’s biggest concern is to stay in power and this means keeping the population happy. Any sign of weakness, such as a humanitarian disaster along the Yalu river,  would be a public relations nightmare for Beijing. 

Perhaps this option should be furthered by increased intelligence collection as to what’s really going on in NK and their intentions. One thing is clear is that Kim is consolidating power by assassinating those with ties to China.

I am not saying we should conduct a pre-emptive strike against N. Korea’s nuclear and ICBMs programs but that it should not be taken off the table. Maybe our strategy should be to develop a credible threat in order to get N.Korea to negotiate in good faith. 

Libya, Hell no

I was gonna do a post on Libya but while researching it I figured this says it all. It is a European problem but the article gives opposing views, which I think is a part of any good article.

This is appropriate now because our foreign policy is chaotic, has our allies spooked and potential adversaries even more spooked.  Perhaps we should look at some situations we should avoid at all costs and try to apply Trump's theory. Libya comes to mind. If there is any single consistency with our current foreign policy its that Europe should do more to defend itself. Libya fits into this category nicely.

https://blog.usni.org/2017/03/15/libya-now-less-than-ever

Not gonna post Today

Spending time with my Zeus.
I know you all will miss my thinking. 

Envelopments.

For those who study the eastern front of WWII. The US is Smolensk now.

On a side bar....the eastern front is where WWII was won. Not D-Day or Iwo Jima, no disrespect to Vets but its facts. The USSR lost over 20 million people. nugh said 

Operation Uranous

What our President owes us.

Our President owes the American people an explanation of what is next.

Some of you may have seen that we are sending more troops to Syria.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/world/middleeast/us-troops-syria.html?_r=0

According to the press, US forces in Syria are composed of special operators, US Army Rangers and now USMC artillery units that will reportedly support the upcoming offensive to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria. This is how things get rolling, it starts with a drip and then next thing you know the US will be conducting another “surge”.   This has the potential to be another massive mistake. I pray it will not.

[Just to add a bit tactical/mission/map analysis to this,, US Rangers conducted a show of force in Manbij, Syria. Manbij is less than around 30KM or 20 miles from the Turkish border. This means the US has a logistical hub in either Turkey or Kurdish territory somewhere near Manbij. The US would not send a convoy of armored vehicles without a quick reaction force and heavy air cover into a hostile area. And US Strykers and HMMWVs guzzle fuel. A logistical hub in NATO ally Turkey is one thing, but one in Syria is another, that requires specialized US service-members to sustain them, mechanics, armorers, medics, surgeons, pilots, fuelers, and intel analysts along with weather folks, and contractors, and massive security] Just sayin. Look here at current situation. http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/March%209EDITS%20COT.pdf

Soon, or if not already, Trump has or will receive recommendations on how to defeat ISIS based on the task he gave the military.  Once received and a final decision is made The President owes the American public the way forward. Just as past Presidents went on prime time TV to address the nation at a time of pending conflict Trump must do the same. I am not asking he give dates or timelines as Obama did, or antagonize the enemy like Bush did by telling AQ in Iraq to “bring it on”.  We should expect a simple overview of what we are doing, why we are doing it and how we will get out of it. If all of those questions cannot be answered clearly we shouldn't do a thing.  

In WWII the goal was an unconditional surrender. CHECK!  Korea and Vietnam were nebulous at best. Desert Storm was to oust Iraq from Kuwait. CHECK! The initial invasion of Afghanistan was clear at first but we lost focus and now have been there for over 15 years with no end in site. Until it becomes a Korea like situation its still a war. The 2003 Iraq invasion also had clear goals at first but no way of winning/keeping the peace. That didn't happen until 2007, after tens if not hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died. When all seemed well Obama washed his hands of it and didn't engage with Baghdad during the critical post-surge period from late 2008 to Dec 2011. That is when Iran ousted the US as the preeminent influence in Baghdad.

Perspective.

This reminds me of early 2002 when I worked in the 25th Infantry Division G3 (operations) plans section. Myself and a bunch of other Captains, you know who you are, watched throughout all of 2002 and up to the invasion, as the US slowly rolled to war. In my opinion it seemed as if it was inevitable and also a massive mistake. We saw requests from CENTCOM that flew under the media’s radar because of its classification and seemingly routineness of rotating troops to the middle east, but many of these requests were very small and of specialized units, not brigade after brigade,,that came later when everyone knew a war was imminent. To me, just a young officer, it didn't seem justifiable to risk American lives when a threat was not readily apparent or obvious. I have the same feeling now, but as a taxpaying private citizen who doesn't want to see the US get involved in another war that is not essential to our existence.

Back to Topic.

We had Saddam isolated and contained and only the Iraqi people were suffering due to the embargo. I saw the true details of the increasing airstrikes the US was conducting under the guise of the No Fly zone violations. This was a deliberate plan to slowly attrit Iraqi air defenses months before we would invade.

This is similar to what’s going on in Syria now, but in a perverted way. Assad has won and and will not be removed from power until Moscow says so.  It is just a matter of time before he consolidates control over all of Syria. Russian intervention initially helped him regain the initiative and focused on his center of gravity in Damascus. As Assad slowly regains ground he and his Russian allies will also crush ISIS. In Saddam case, he was contained and we really didnt have to invade. There is nothing that the US can do at this point besides provide humanitarian assistance.

What can the US really accomplish in Syria besides killing an unending stream of terrorists and jihadist? I would say not much. Instead let's focus on what we can do to improve lives.

1. Secure Iraq from ISIS, let Assad fight out his civil war in Syria. Its Russia’s mess now and Assad will reign until Moscow says otherwise. Obama blew that one with all of his red lines. Instead they were big red arrows pointing from Moscow to Damascus.

2. Avoiding a conflict with Russia.

3.Conduct long overdue humanitarian operations to support refugees in Jordan, Iraq and Turkey. This will help the US rebuild some respect with Turkey and Iraq. I doubt Iran or Russia is doing much to help refugees in either nation. The big turd in the room is the Kurdish question. It is complicated and will take time and many conferences and talks. My opinion of that is here. http://containandisolate.blogspot.com/2017/02/kurdistan-crisis-or-opportunity.html

KJH

Second surgery update (Warning: pix at bottom may gross some out)

NOTE: As you scroll down first set of pix are xrays,,second set are more graphic.

I had my first check up after the ankle reconstruction surgery on 9 March 2017. Dr Corbett said it was a great success! I had a good feeling when the nurse pulled up the front facing xray, taken moments before, in the exam room and I noticed the ankle was now in line and in the proper place with the tibia (shin bone). This was the major problem after the first surgery. In the immediate aftermath of surgery #1 everything was in line, however after two weeks the tibia shifted out of line. Thus surgery 2.

Delta external fixator

In surgery #2 the Doctor weaved in and out of my tibia a cadaver/artificial ligament and then for assurance she attached a "Delta external fixator" to my leg. The lower pin completely pierces my heel bone and on both ends are carbon fiber rods that connect at an apex. 

The apex is a few inches above my ankle and is anchored to my shin bone with two screws. You can see the screw threads and I must clean these along with the heel rod everyday to prevent infection. I will not be in a cast or boot until this thing is removed. Cast/boot will allow the holes in my heel and tibia properly heal.


The doctor said everything is looking great! Keep your fingers crossed.

Initial break, front view

Initial break, side view 26Jan. Bone was protruding from skin, wound visible on pix below.

2 wks after 1st op with titanium plate/screws. Tibia, bone on right, is too far out of alignment.

Delta fixator post 2nd op side view 

Post 2nd operation with delta fixator. Tibia is in alignment.

9Mar with delta fixator installed. Scar from bone protrusion on front of leg.

Heel was shish kabobed.

Protrusion point of bone,,few days after fall.