We probably got a Putin problem here...

The term Hybrid warfare may become common in the media as this scandal unfolds in Washington. Here is a link on it.

Yes, while nothing has been proven in court yet, I have no doubt something is going down and it may be the classic case of the cover up is worse than the crime.

Why else would the GOP led Senate intel committee ask such pointed questions on 30 March?  A GOP member of the committee asked a former FBI agent if the administration was influenced by Russia,,,the answer was basically Yes. Start listening at 1 hour, 33 minute mark to see GOP Senator Lankford asks Mr. Watts why Russia was successful in manipulating the 2016 election. The response by former the former FBI agent  was that the Trump admin used Russian active measures against their opponents. Scary. Trump and his campaign were manipulated either unwittingly or intentionally by Russian fake news and twitter posts.

This is only going to get worse I believe.

South China Sea Part 1

This is a BIG deal. There are a few places on Earth where a major war could erupt between nuclear powers,,This is one of them. 

The South China Sea is disputed by many nations, has lots of trade pass through it and the nations disputing possession are in an arms race. 

Here is an interesting interactive map and article from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington D.C. think tank.  

https://amti.csis.org/chinas-big-three-near-completion/

[An excellent primer on Chinese SCS claims can be found HERE at the Council on Foreign Relations, publisher of the esteemed journal Foreign Affairs. ]

China claims most of the South China Sea (SCS)  based on a map called the “9 dash line” that dates way, way back to the mid 20th century. The Chinese claim this as evidence they have owned the islands of the SCS for centuries and thus the “territorial” waters around them. 

Despite the fact these “islands” are only reefs, and not islands it has not prevented the Chinese from occupying them.  Over the past few decades, with the most significant work being done over the past 5 years, the Chinese have created man-made islands out of these reefs. They have airfields, helipads, radar sites, fortifications along with facilities to garrison troops there. Quite industrious.

Many other nations claim areas of the SCS as you can see according to the map. The SCS is disputed for a few reasons, fishing rights, natural resources and trade routes. Lots of trade goes thru here and this trade is critical to the Chinese economy. If they can control these sea lanes they have greater flexibility if a conflict were to erupt.  The Chinese have the upper hand regardless of what courts say as possession is 9/10ths of the law, as is evident with Russia and the Crimea.  

The SCS has been the location of several incidents involving the Chinese military against the US, Vietnam and The Philippines, to name a few. The US conducts freedom of navigation operations near these islands to show our disapproval of Chinese occupation and fortification and to state these are international waters subject to no one single nation. 

If you look at the larger map you will notice that in order for trade to reach the SCS or leave the SCS to/from Europe, Africa or the M.E. its gotta go through some of the world's most heavily trafficked maritime choke points.  This will be a post for another day. Why control the SCS,,if you cant control access to it from the west?

My Congressman helped me,,,believe it or not.

All hope is not lost with Congress,,,at least at the individual representative level. My Congressman, Steve Scalise, of the great 1st District of Louisiana, helped me win a dispute with the Veterans Administration. The VA sent me a bill that I should not have received for a variety of reasons. It was for an amount in the 4 digit range. There was no way I should have to pay it and no way I was going to pay it. After a few calls to the VA admin they told me time and time again to lodge an official dispute. I did, but they gave me the wrong info and it went to the wrong office and is lost somewhere in the VA to this day.

I sent another packet, this time I verified with two different officials the correct location, and got a response. The response was that they were looking into it. My patience were wearing thin and after a call to the VA HQ in Washington I was told it may take a few months for them to figure this out.  No, I told them it should not. This is an open and shut case.

I had enough of the BS.

I contacted Congressman Scalise, who is also the House majority Whip, for his assistance.

Within days I received a personally signed letter from him stating his office would facilitate my complaint against the VA. I filled out the release forms he enclosed that allowed his staff to speak on my behalf and mailed them off to his office.  No kidding, within one week of submitting the release forms the VA hospital in Alexandria, LA called me. They said they received an inquiry from Rep. Scalise and want to resolve this issue ASAP.  

[I know how congressional inquires work as being a former Army officer I dealt with a few. Congressionals, as they are called, take an inquisitive approach and do not take for granted what the complainant is claiming is true. When dealing with Congressionals as an officer I responded or provided evidence that the servicemembers’ complaint was inaccurate, or substantiated. In every case I dealt with the soldier was wrong and that would be the end of story.

In my case with the VA I knew I was in the right and hence the call from the VA.

Had I been completely full of BS the VA would have provided evidence to the contrary of my claim to the congressman and I would have been informed to pay the bill.]

Making a long story short, Congressman Scalise’s office had set a fire under the VA hospitals’ ass and even the director was involved because of the seriousness of the charges I put forth. Malpractice and endangering my safety and well being just two of them.  In the end the entire mess was resolved completely in my favor.

This whole mess gives me a bit of confidence in our congress, specifically my representative.  It does not however improve my view of the VA. I have had nothing but bad experiences with the VA, this just continues this trend, a trend that spans over 9 years, 4 VA centers in three states. All three major hospitals, Hawaii, Hampton Roads and Alexandria, LA, have the same problems. Understaffed and overworked.  Where the hell is all of this money going? Every year congress gives the VA more money but yet nothing changes it seems. I know they are spending a lot on infrastructure, as they should, but perhaps more needs to be spent on competent employees.

Speaking of the infrastructure. The VA hospitals in Alexandria, LA and Hampton, VA were horrible and disgusting. They were being renovated but after 10 years of money being thrown at the VA they shouldn't be in the state they are. Example,,,the major VA hospital in New Orleans was destroyed during Katrina,,,it just now reopened in late 2016. Yep, 11 years it took the VA to build a new hospital. WTF?

I try to avoid the VA at all costs now, except the occasional correspondence regarding benefits and past and current claims. I know many are happy with the VA, and that is great, but I have not been so lucky. When at the VA my feelings are confirmed,,people have had either a great experience or a horrid one. I only hope the VA gets its act together so everyone gets the experience they deserve.

S-1C Engine

Most Powerful engine ever built,,,S1C.

Who launches the most important US national security satellite payloads? It is probably not the answer you would think. These payloads include ballistic missile early warning satellites, weather satellites, reconnaissance satellites and communication satellites. Answer. Russia. Yep. Since the 1990s the US Air Force, the organization responsible for placing national security payloads into orbit, has been reliant upon the Russian designed and built RD-180 booster engine to place its most important assets into orbit.

Why? Cost and reliability. The US has domestically produced engines that can do the job but not nearly as efficient as the RD-180. The RD 180 is powerful, has fewer parts and is easier to manufacture than the current US made RS-68/A engine. While the RS-68 powers the Delta IV rocket family, the worlds most powerful orbital launch system currently in service, it does so at a cost nearly 30% more expensive than the RD-180. Since the mid 1990s when the US and Russian governments agreed to this deal the US military became addicted to the RD-180 and little was done to find a domestically produced equal. This was the case until 2014 when congress finally authorized funding to produce an alternative in response to the Russian annexation of Crimea.  

Currently the US is on schedule to launch the AR-1 booster no earlier than 2019. That is if congress gets its ass together.

Thoughts

While the UK parliament is under assault I give you, think about it
who hit the UK?. Excuse all misspellings,,,my intern didnt do the job.

Cookin outside. 
Down here in Louisiana we can cook/grill outside year round. However, having been here since July 2016 I have only been through half of one summer but it was the hottest Ive ever been with the exception of being in the Kuwaiti desert with a full load of combat gear at 4am,,,before sunrise. Yes, those who have been in the M.E. know what im talking about. t. Its humid down here. During July and August of last year it was routinely around 135+ degrees F with an average humidity of 185%. Even during this past winter when it was in the 50s or 60s we had to run the A/C at home and at work due to the humidity. One thing makes up for it. THE FOOD. The food is,,,wellllll better than anything I have had except the dolma the Kirkuk Police gave me in 2007. 

Topic Two

Picky Dog. 
Zeus, Our pure breed Belgian Malnois.  Is the only dog, when it comes to eating whatever falls on the floor,  that I have ever seen or heard of, that fails at this.  We first learned this when he refused to eat a treat.

 Just sniffed it then trotted away in disgust. He then refused to eat certain crackers that were dropped on the floor by accident. One of the most important tasks a dog can perform is floor clean up. 

If food hits the floor, the only acceptable exception being veggies, the dog should instantly eat it up. Liquids, meat, snacks, whatever, as long as it ain't bad for them. Zeus fails at this. 

Its his only weak point, he is smart, athletic, protective, listenes, doesn’t jump, and is very good with kids.  

We bought the dog new dog food the other day on the recommendation of our Vet. He will not eat it. After barely eating it for 2 days I decided its time to act as I don’t want him going hungry and eating the sofa. I added a bit of chicken stock to his food and sure as hell he ate it up. Now its probably just a matter of time until Zeus catches on and demands more and more stock until we exhaust our budget on this. 


Pre “COOKED” lasagna ribbons.
My friend J.D. gave me a topic about pre cooked lazanya noodles, (S.E. pennsylvania annunciation). I agreed, they are BS. I tried them once and they taste like boiled cardboard,,,not the amazon box cardboard but the big stuff you get at the UPS store when you want to ship an important thing. Lacks texture. Im on one leg and wouldnt even try to feed this to my family…….

But if it did,,,,

Here is my plan.  Boil water. ,,Id quickly dish the boiling water in dishes that need to be cleaned,  then call the local delivery joint for some lazanya, delivery of course. My wife would know but in the end its all okay as the family is fed. 

North Korea. Rational Actor. Perhaps.

During Sec of State Tillerson’s recent trip to Asia he made it very clear that Obama’s policy towards N. Korea, known as strategic patience was over. What was strategic patience? In my opinion it was non engagement and as others have said, collapsism.  What this will be replaced with is yet to be seen but Tillerson upped the ante by stating no options were off the table, a euphemism for military action is possible.

S.Korea, N.Korea and China at night. Source.

There are many theories out there as to how we should deal with N.Korea’s nuclear and ICBM programs and none of them seem to be very good options. N. Korea is too close to getting a viable nuclear warhead and an ICBM with which to threaten its adversaries. Any diplomatic venture would require months, if not years, to complete within which time the North could easily field an operational nuclear deterrent, perhaps with several delivery options.

Here are some options that are bouncing around out there. The last one is my oddball theory.

Chinese Pressure.
I doubt this will work as China wants a N.Korea regime on its border as a buffer. The Chinese like the status quo. The US could enact sanctions against China if they don't force N. Korea to change its ways, but that could lead to a trade war.  This would be devastating to both economies. 

Talks.
Talks have never worked in the past and the N.Koreans have played us, with the aid of China, every time. Unless we get assurances of China and concessions from N.Korea before we act on our part this is not worth it. It only buys N. Korea time. One way this could work would be a credible threat of a US strike against N.Korea, as it would realize China’s greatest fear, a war. See the last option regarding this.

Deal with it.
This is the most likely thing that will happen. No one wants a nuclear NK but it has already happened. The problem with dealing with it is the North will conduct nuclear blackmail when it wants something from us. While it is doubtful they would ever use their nukes, they could threaten to proliferate them to terrorist groups that wouldn't hesitate to set off a nuke in the US.  This would be an indirect blackmail they could hang over our heads. However grim this seems we must develop a strategy to deal with this outcome.

Strike N. Korea, or at least a credible threat.
 Most articles you read and experts would say this course of action would likely cause a war. I tend to agree but have a theory as to why it may not. And a strike could actually be possible, or at least the threat of a strike. The purpose of this legitimate threat would be to drive N.Korea to the negotiation table. But it must be credible. 

My theory is simple. The Kim regime is a rational actor. The Kim regime only wants to stay in power it may actually suck it up and only retaliate with sabotage and perhaps some limited shelling of border towns. Why? While any shelling of S. Korean towns and cities would cause mass panic and casualties it would surely invite swift retaliation and the potential massive degradation of N.Korea’s conventional artillery forces. These forces have been the most potent threat for decades, especially due to their large chemical weapons stash.  

Before I go further any strike against N.Korea would require the implicit approval, support and participation of South Korea. It is they who will decide this, not the US.

The threat against Seoul is also not as great as most think. Only N.Korea’s most capable and modern artillery pieces, mostly rocket, would be able to range the most densely populated parts of Seoul. And even then this artillery would have to be placed in potentially less than optimal positions within range of Seoul. That makes it easier for S. Korea and the US to target and destroy these pieces. That is not to minimize the panic and casualties it would cause but Seoul would not be wiped out. 

Would the Kim regime be willing to risk its most effective conventional weapons in the event they lost their nuclear and ICBM programs?  I would think not as they would be even more vulnerable than before and a full scale war would certainly put the Kim regime out of business. The Kim regime is more rational than most believe. As history has shown us thru famine, drought and purges the Kim regime is not interested in maintaining a thriving society, its only interest is to enrich itself, and it does this by maintaining an iron grip on power. 

The big wild card in this would be China. How would they react to US airstrikes being conducted so close to its border? China’s biggest fear would be the implosion of the N.Korean regime. That would create a humanitarian crisis along the Yalu river and most likely position US and S.Korean troops even closer to China as they attempt to regain control in NK. This would be bad in domestic politics for the ruling communist party. As I have said before, the Communist party’s biggest concern is to stay in power and this means keeping the population happy. Any sign of weakness, such as a humanitarian disaster along the Yalu river,  would be a public relations nightmare for Beijing. 

Perhaps this option should be furthered by increased intelligence collection as to what’s really going on in NK and their intentions. One thing is clear is that Kim is consolidating power by assassinating those with ties to China.

I am not saying we should conduct a pre-emptive strike against N. Korea’s nuclear and ICBMs programs but that it should not be taken off the table. Maybe our strategy should be to develop a credible threat in order to get N.Korea to negotiate in good faith. 

Libya, Hell no

I was gonna do a post on Libya but while researching it I figured this says it all. It is a European problem but the article gives opposing views, which I think is a part of any good article.

This is appropriate now because our foreign policy is chaotic, has our allies spooked and potential adversaries even more spooked.  Perhaps we should look at some situations we should avoid at all costs and try to apply Trump's theory. Libya comes to mind. If there is any single consistency with our current foreign policy its that Europe should do more to defend itself. Libya fits into this category nicely.

https://blog.usni.org/2017/03/15/libya-now-less-than-ever

Not gonna post Today

Spending time with my Zeus.
I know you all will miss my thinking. 

Envelopments.

For those who study the eastern front of WWII. The US is Smolensk now.

On a side bar....the eastern front is where WWII was won. Not D-Day or Iwo Jima, no disrespect to Vets but its facts. The USSR lost over 20 million people. nugh said 

Operation Uranous

What our President owes us.

Our President owes the American people an explanation of what is next.

Some of you may have seen that we are sending more troops to Syria.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/world/middleeast/us-troops-syria.html?_r=0

According to the press, US forces in Syria are composed of special operators, US Army Rangers and now USMC artillery units that will reportedly support the upcoming offensive to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria. This is how things get rolling, it starts with a drip and then next thing you know the US will be conducting another “surge”.   This has the potential to be another massive mistake. I pray it will not.

[Just to add a bit tactical/mission/map analysis to this,, US Rangers conducted a show of force in Manbij, Syria. Manbij is less than around 30KM or 20 miles from the Turkish border. This means the US has a logistical hub in either Turkey or Kurdish territory somewhere near Manbij. The US would not send a convoy of armored vehicles without a quick reaction force and heavy air cover into a hostile area. And US Strykers and HMMWVs guzzle fuel. A logistical hub in NATO ally Turkey is one thing, but one in Syria is another, that requires specialized US service-members to sustain them, mechanics, armorers, medics, surgeons, pilots, fuelers, and intel analysts along with weather folks, and contractors, and massive security] Just sayin. Look here at current situation. http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/March%209EDITS%20COT.pdf

Soon, or if not already, Trump has or will receive recommendations on how to defeat ISIS based on the task he gave the military.  Once received and a final decision is made The President owes the American public the way forward. Just as past Presidents went on prime time TV to address the nation at a time of pending conflict Trump must do the same. I am not asking he give dates or timelines as Obama did, or antagonize the enemy like Bush did by telling AQ in Iraq to “bring it on”.  We should expect a simple overview of what we are doing, why we are doing it and how we will get out of it. If all of those questions cannot be answered clearly we shouldn't do a thing.  

In WWII the goal was an unconditional surrender. CHECK!  Korea and Vietnam were nebulous at best. Desert Storm was to oust Iraq from Kuwait. CHECK! The initial invasion of Afghanistan was clear at first but we lost focus and now have been there for over 15 years with no end in site. Until it becomes a Korea like situation its still a war. The 2003 Iraq invasion also had clear goals at first but no way of winning/keeping the peace. That didn't happen until 2007, after tens if not hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died. When all seemed well Obama washed his hands of it and didn't engage with Baghdad during the critical post-surge period from late 2008 to Dec 2011. That is when Iran ousted the US as the preeminent influence in Baghdad.

Perspective.

This reminds me of early 2002 when I worked in the 25th Infantry Division G3 (operations) plans section. Myself and a bunch of other Captains, you know who you are, watched throughout all of 2002 and up to the invasion, as the US slowly rolled to war. In my opinion it seemed as if it was inevitable and also a massive mistake. We saw requests from CENTCOM that flew under the media’s radar because of its classification and seemingly routineness of rotating troops to the middle east, but many of these requests were very small and of specialized units, not brigade after brigade,,that came later when everyone knew a war was imminent. To me, just a young officer, it didn't seem justifiable to risk American lives when a threat was not readily apparent or obvious. I have the same feeling now, but as a taxpaying private citizen who doesn't want to see the US get involved in another war that is not essential to our existence.

Back to Topic.

We had Saddam isolated and contained and only the Iraqi people were suffering due to the embargo. I saw the true details of the increasing airstrikes the US was conducting under the guise of the No Fly zone violations. This was a deliberate plan to slowly attrit Iraqi air defenses months before we would invade.

This is similar to what’s going on in Syria now, but in a perverted way. Assad has won and and will not be removed from power until Moscow says so.  It is just a matter of time before he consolidates control over all of Syria. Russian intervention initially helped him regain the initiative and focused on his center of gravity in Damascus. As Assad slowly regains ground he and his Russian allies will also crush ISIS. In Saddam case, he was contained and we really didnt have to invade. There is nothing that the US can do at this point besides provide humanitarian assistance.

What can the US really accomplish in Syria besides killing an unending stream of terrorists and jihadist? I would say not much. Instead let's focus on what we can do to improve lives.

1. Secure Iraq from ISIS, let Assad fight out his civil war in Syria. Its Russia’s mess now and Assad will reign until Moscow says otherwise. Obama blew that one with all of his red lines. Instead they were big red arrows pointing from Moscow to Damascus.

2. Avoiding a conflict with Russia.

3.Conduct long overdue humanitarian operations to support refugees in Jordan, Iraq and Turkey. This will help the US rebuild some respect with Turkey and Iraq. I doubt Iran or Russia is doing much to help refugees in either nation. The big turd in the room is the Kurdish question. It is complicated and will take time and many conferences and talks. My opinion of that is here. http://containandisolate.blogspot.com/2017/02/kurdistan-crisis-or-opportunity.html

KJH

Second surgery update (Warning: pix at bottom may gross some out)

NOTE: As you scroll down first set of pix are xrays,,second set are more graphic.

I had my first check up after the ankle reconstruction surgery on 9 March 2017. Dr Corbett said it was a great success! I had a good feeling when the nurse pulled up the front facing xray, taken moments before, in the exam room and I noticed the ankle was now in line and in the proper place with the tibia (shin bone). This was the major problem after the first surgery. In the immediate aftermath of surgery #1 everything was in line, however after two weeks the tibia shifted out of line. Thus surgery 2.

Delta external fixator

In surgery #2 the Doctor weaved in and out of my tibia a cadaver/artificial ligament and then for assurance she attached a "Delta external fixator" to my leg. The lower pin completely pierces my heel bone and on both ends are carbon fiber rods that connect at an apex. 

The apex is a few inches above my ankle and is anchored to my shin bone with two screws. You can see the screw threads and I must clean these along with the heel rod everyday to prevent infection. I will not be in a cast or boot until this thing is removed. Cast/boot will allow the holes in my heel and tibia properly heal.


The doctor said everything is looking great! Keep your fingers crossed.

Initial break, front view

Initial break, side view 26Jan. Bone was protruding from skin, wound visible on pix below.

2 wks after 1st op with titanium plate/screws. Tibia, bone on right, is too far out of alignment.

Delta fixator post 2nd op side view 

Post 2nd operation with delta fixator. Tibia is in alignment.

9Mar with delta fixator installed. Scar from bone protrusion on front of leg.

Heel was shish kabobed.

Protrusion point of bone,,few days after fall.

US debt held by China

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-may-already-be-losing-the-trade-war-19701

This is an interesting article that does a pretty good job explaining how China is not as economically powerful as everyone thinks. It also makes a very interesting point in terms I can understand regarding US debt held by China. In order to finance the yearly federal budget deficit we sell US treasuries to the public, companies and other nations. The largest holder of all this debt is the US taxpayer. The largest foreign holder of this debt is China. Google it.

Here is the kicker....This article goes on to state that China with over a $1 trillion in US debt has over the past few years allowed Chinese investors to use this money to finance purchases in real estate and other assets in the US. So basically They lent us money by buying treasuries and then turned around and sent those same dollars right back to the US. 

???????

Bottom Line Up Front:

The US looks weak and China and Russia are well aware of that. They dont have to challenge us to figure out how the Trump admin will react. Its evident in their uncoordinated and irresponsible daily tweets and responses to serious questions.

Perception is reality. Regardless of the stance/view you have on the Obama admin and now the Trump administration one thing can be agreed on. As I sit here letting my leg heel I cant help but come to the conclusion the US is a wreck. A train big ol train wreck.

I watch and read all the usual news programs and outlets. I found one common theme,,left leaning outlets critize Trump as if he were the devil, right leaning outlets promote reasons to provide covering fire for him. It was the opposite under the Obama admin, but that is a post for another day. This is how the US works and we are lucky to have an open press to provide this view.

A few posts ago I wrote about how China will challenge us soon. Its not necessary. The Trump admin is dealing with a crisis on a daily basis,,,All of which are Self Inflicted. You cant make this stuff up.

China in particular has me worried. I still believe they will challenge us directly but it will be delayed. Past presidents had some level of sensibility. Not Trump. One of the key tenets of international relations is being able to plan ahead according to the opposition’s past actions. The US has been great at that,,,until now.  

Right now, the world sees the US as a train wreck. You can argue all day that its the media fault but that is a waste of time.   Our media is where the world gets its perception of the US.  The administration looks so incompetent it has Xi Jinping, Putin and Kim Jong-Un happier than pigs in dookie. Despite of all the tough talk Trump has done nothing  internationally.   Ask Xi Jinping, Vlad Putin and Kim Jong- un.

Russia and China are sitting back waiting for us to implode. Meanwhile, Jong-un and his boys are firing off missiles as if it were the 4th of July.

…..

More later,,,gotta take the dog out to poop.

Look! Squirrel!!

SQUIRREL!!!!!

This is what the current admin is doing regarding our international influence. Shifting, refocusing and diffusing our attention.

We are losing our way as the administration is creating internal distractions to shift public opinion away from international failures.

The Trump administration can’t handle pressure. At least it seems that way, and perception is reality. The international stage is all about appearances. And the US looks weak and indecisive.

One aspect of American government is the peaceful transfer of power. Regardless of the tension/hatred between the outgoing and incoming admins we have always maintained a steady course.

Until now. What is it with Trump accusing Obama of tapping his phone?

TRUE OR NOT THIS NEEDS TO BE KEPT OUT OF PUBLIC VIEW AND DEALT WITH INTERNALLY AS THIS CAN ONLY EMBOLDEN OUR ENEMIES. THAT IS ONE THING WE AS AMERICANS SHOULD ALL HAVE IN COMMON.

Trump is focused on weekly TV ratings instead assessing the long term viability and profitability of the station as a whole. (yes this is a metaphor regarding Trumps focus and our nation) . They create internal strife to refocus the public from their failures abroad despite their tough talk against North Korea, Iran and China.

If I were a China, Russia or Germany….. I would make a huge effort to replace the US as the world's de facto leader. Especially China. They could have challenged Trump earlier on but didnt. Unlike North Korea they are waiting for the moment when we are at our weakest to stir up an incident. The Chinese know that the Trump administration is weak and will fold at the right time.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-06/north-korea-missile-launches-nuclear-detonations-timeline

My Afghan plan.

Here are my thoughts on the way forward in Afghanistan. Its somewhat thought through and I need to expand more on the endstate. If you have the time please provide input,,or any critiques. I dont think it varies that much from what currently is going on but it makes it clear and honest.

Lets face it. We aint leaving Afghanistan anytime soon, and cant. This is a long term commitment but one we can manage. Why?

- Afghanistan is a failed state. If we were to completely leave we would have another ISIS like crisis erupt and foreign nations, i.e. Iran garner more influence than the US.

- Economic potential is low in the short term outside of opium production. Long term its rich in raw materials.

- Its society has been split for generations and a massive gap exists between urban and rural populations.

-

Taliban glamour photo, Paktika province, 2004. Author.

- It has one thing going for it besides raw materials. Its location, but more on that in a later post. For the time being google "the great game".

According to the latest US document on our Afghanistan strategy US objectives are “to disrupt threats posed by al Qaeda, support the ANDSF, and give the Afghan people the opportunity to succeed as they stand on their own”. Further “The ultimate goal of U.S. and international efforts is a sovereign, secure, stable, and unified Afghanistan.”

Im sorry but those goals are too broad and unachievable, especially Afghanistan being able to stand on its own. This will cost unknown lives and will waste US taxpayer funds with little tangible results to show for it that benefit international security. This will no longer be a charity operation. In exchange for our money and resources we want a dependable leader that we can count on.

Currently we give the Afghan govt AT LEAST $5 billion per year. That does not include operational costs associated with US military operations,  your tax dollars go straight to Kabul. If history is any judge most of this money is wasted among the vast enterprise that is the Afghan government. That is not a knock on the Afghan government it is just how the country operates. It’s always been like that Alexander the Great and we are ignorant to think we can change it. It will also be nearly impossible for Afghanistan to “stand on its own” as the assessment states. Afghanistan is a failed state.

So how do we reduce our exposure to risk in Afghanistan while maintaining some level of stability there? The sad answer is that there is no single good answer, and many bad ones. For starters the economic and social situation Afghanistan finds itself today began in 1978 when the communists took control. What ensued afterwards has been nothing but war. First the Soviet invasion followed by conflict caused by the withdrawal of Soviet forces and US aid and then the rise of the Taliban. What is left today is a nation that is a failed state.

So what do we do? Here is my plan.

- Make peace with the Taliban or whatever warlord agrees to keep terrorist out. If they want a sharia based autocracy so be it. We should have learned by now we cant force democracy down peoples throat. As my interpreter in Iraq once told me,,,”Democracy and freedom are not meant for everyone. Freedom may work in America but in Iraq we need a dictator”.  I agree with that. Look at Russia. They cant, and basically dont want a democracy as we know it. They are happy with Putin. If the leader isnt in line with our agenda he is out.

- Since China is now investing in Afghanistan's natural resources and has increasing fears of an ISIS insurgency in its Xinjiang province we should use this as leverage to encourage Chinese funding of infrastructure projects(which they are very good at). While this may have limited impact on the Afghan economy, based on ongoing Chinese investments in Africa and S. America, it will make China a stakeholder.  It will also warm up relations between the US and China as we work together on military and civic operations/governance.

- Stay the course and maintain a presence large enough to maintain and expand as required an intelligence network. This will be focused on counterterrorism.

- Train Afghan counter terror and special forces at the national and provincial levels. Provide aid/funding for these forces only. We can vet these forces to a higher degree and they will be much more effective than large conventional formations.

- Our NATO partners will be responsible for any training/funding of conventional forces.

- Yes, we will be creating a vassal state. But Afghanistan is a mess and needs some sort of central control to prevent it from becoming one large terror training camp.

Endstate: Maintain positive control over the government in Kabul, unlike Baghdad. Installed Afghan leader that is loyal to our agenda and we maintain close ties to. Reduced risk to US and allied troops and trainers. Funds are reduced to what is only needed to train special forces and maintain a solid intelligence network that can be expanded rapidly.

Banana Republic

Okay. Between the fake news accusations, potential Russian influence on our election and now with this weird claim that Obama bugged Trump tower, the current administration is making the US look like a banana republic. The media and congress are not helping either. Regardless of the merits of these topics they must be addressed as they have become a self fulfilling prophecy and its spreading like a cancer. What is next? Is Trump going to claim we never landed on the moon? Is the media going to follow suit and write about such crazy claims? Will bipartisan congressional leaders stay silent as they have been?

I blame the media for giving undue attention to stories where no crimes have been committed as of now. I blame the Trump administration for posting tweets that are often baseless and accusatory in nature, and are of a nature not befitting the office from where they originate. Its is also congress’s fault because they are stalling on solving this once and for all. While there are rumors that a group of bipartisan lawmakers want an independent source to investigate this it’s only talk so far. Everyday a new revelation is released only making this mess more complicated, and tougher for the administration to control our message to the world.

Its making us look bad and nations like China are jumping on the fake news bandwagon to discredit media articles regarding human rights abuses. We are losing our soft power