Here are my thoughts broken down by topic.
Russia.
Russia is an old hat at working in a chaotic world and Putin being the cold warrior he is will have no problem dealing with any ambiguity that Trump shows. If anything Trump has exhibited a very stable and open mindedness regarding relations with Russia under his administration. Trump has signaled he wants to team with Russia to defeat terrorism but has not signaled a willingness to back up eastern European nations that feel threatened by Russia. At the same time he has expressed opposite views on the future of NATO.
[ Since the initial writing of thi on 28Jan17, Trump as stated his full support for NATO with UK PM May. He has yet to back our eastern european NATO allies specifically and thus I stand by the benchmark of US exercises in Poland and the Baltics as to Trump's true intentions]
It will be telling to see if Trump continues with increased US military maneuvers in eastern Europe that was bolstered by Obama over the past few years. A continuation of this policy will put questions in Putin’s head regarding US predictability going forward in Europe.
NATO.
I see it highly unlikely that Trump will reduce America’s role in Nato as long as our fellow allies agree to fund more of their own defenses. Angela Merkel and UK PM Theresa May have both agreed that NATO members should pay their fair share and meet the minimum defense spending requirement of 2% of GDP. In fact the UK is one of only a few NATO members that meets the threshold while Germany has stated it will soon meet the standard.
If progress is seen in this area of contention Trump will probably not waiver from America’s commitment to NATO and peace in Europe.
The one area
China (PRC) challenge.
The last two Presidents were confronted with international crisis regarding China. In 2001 US and PRC military aircraft collided over the SCS. One PRC pilot was killed in his fighter while a US crew in a surveillance aircraft made an emergency landing in PRC territory and held for over a week while their aircraft was investigated. Eventually all US personnel and equipment was returned. Neither nation issued an apology.
In 2009 PRC navy ships hounded a US navy surveillance ship in the SCS while it was conducting operations. PRC and attempted to damage or retrieve its towed sonar array and almost caused a collision by dropping debris in front of the USNS Impeccable. No casualties were recorded and the PRC backed down once the US sent a destroyer to escort the civilian manned USNS ship.
During the campaign and now as President Trump has stated he will be tough with regards to t PRC claims of sovereignty over man made islands in the SCS and the right for freedom of navigation and trade. Since this talk has transpired over to the administration the likelihood of a PRC provocation is lower. The PRC is much less likely to risk a conflict, despite being near its home turf and fielding a more capable military, because it knows Trump is unpredictable and may not react as calmly as Bush and Obama did.
An unexpected outcome that could damage the PRC reputation or make them look bad would be a loss for the communist regime. Everything the communist regime does is in some aspect directly tied to legitimizing its rule in the eyes of its 1.4 billion citizens. A loss of face due to an unexpected US response could lessen its viability domestically. The Chinese hate to lose face, and Trump’s chaotic nature may prevent any PRC provocation.
North Korea.
This is the biggest unknown. NK is in a pure survival mode. Its not concerned about gaining territory, opening up trade or improving its economy. The regime only wants to survive at the expense of its citizens. More to follow.
Iran.
Well, before I could even get to Iran they launched a ballistic missile in violation of a UN resolution. I do not know what to say but this is his first international issue that goes against his hardline talk during the campaign.
This launch probably was coincidental with a pre planned operation to test Trump but just coincided with them promising retaliation for the immigration executive order Trump signed on 28Jan17. Whether this is the only thing Iran will do is highly doubtful. They could break deals with Boeing and other US companies and take their business elsewhere, or prohibit US businessmen from entering Iran. This would, however, have negative impacts on their economy which is desperate for foreign investment and technology. A more realistic response would be for Iran to harass US naval vessels in the Arabian Gulf to increase tensions.
1 comment:
Kev--I enjoy your reading thoughts. You express way more than I know about int'l relations.While I have been very discouraged by the prospect of Trump presidency, I am listening to Reagan bio---there was similar concerns about his hard line policies and we survived. Trump is another notch or more south on the psychiatric spectrum--so there is still reason to worry. Does he make us more vulnerable or does is his unpredictability an asset?
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