Im just following up on an earlier post regarding a crisis between the US and China. Considering increased tensions on the Korean peninsula and the middle east its probably a good time to look at this.
Earlier post.
Many posts ago I put forth the idea that China would eventually challenge Trump as President. To judge how the new administration can handle a crisis. It would most likely come in the form of a military confrontation that would otherwise be routine The script is familiar, and somewhat routine, Chinese military aircraft or naval vessels will confront its US peer on the basis the US is violating, or coming close to violating Chinese territory. This is routine in that nations do this all the time and was at its peak during the Cold War between NATO and the Soviet Union.
Historical Precedent.
China did just that to both George W. Bush and Barack Obama early in their administrations. In Obama’s case the Chinese attempted to physically damage a US navy surveillance ship in March of 2009. During GWB’s first term the incident occurred in early April 2001, lasted for 10 days and resulted in the death of one Chinese fighter pilot and the capture and eventual repatriation of a US surveillance plane and its crew.
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| USNS Impeccable. The ship involved in the March 2009 incident with China. US Navy. |
Thus far the Trump administration has not had to deal with this, but the time is ripe,,and we are in the historic window of when the Chinese pull these off. (I know this happening twice isnt exactly precedent but commies are usually predictable when it comes to such things.) This is a great time for the Chinese to pull one of these off for two reasons. First, tensions are increased in China’s neighborhood due to N. Korea’s ballistic missile program and the more aggressive US posture in the region. Two, the US has already ratcheted up tensions with Russia by striking a Syrian air base. So now you basically have a very tense situation in the Middle East and an increasingly tense situation in China’s backyard. An additional crisis instigated by China would serve as an excellent opportunity to judge the Trump administration’s ability to handle multiple crisis at once.
There are obvious risk associate with this approach. China is a scripted government and loves predictability. Trump is the antithesis to this approach. Spur of the moment thinking does not make Beijing very comfortable and US chest thumping regarding military strikes against N. Korea’s nuke program exacerbates this problem. Beijing knowing Trump’s spontaneous nature could miscalculate and push it too far, sparking a crisis that does more than increase the pucker factor. A second risk is that China’s military is increasingly confident due to better equipment, realistic training compared to what they had in the past and government encouraged nationalism. Add in the fact the Chinese believe the US is in decline both economically and militarily and you got yourself a big bowl of overconfidence soup.
I just hope the Trump folks are anticipating this and have a plan to stand our ground while avoiding a shooting war and demonstrating to our allies we got their back.
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