I am trying to establish some sort of writing history in order to facilitate a small freelance writing gig. Here are pieces written in the past and now being pasted here. These ARE UNEDITED for GRAMMAR and SPELLING. I just want my original, unrefined and finished thinking to there for all to see. At the end of each article is a screen capture of the Word Properties showing the date of creation and time spent on it. Sometimes the dates will have been reset due to technical or data corruption but most are accurate.
The past 10 years have seen some of the largest changes in the international scene since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990. China has become, by some measurements, the largest economy on earth, and is redefining the international system, the Middle East has been completely destabilized, Russia’s role in the world is changing and Climate change has hit with its first visible changes.
1. Failure to Pivot
The US realized that the wars it was fighting in the ME were of no strategic value. AQ had metastasized and spread around Asia and Africa. There was no use in containing it any longer by positioning large forces in Iraq or Afghanistan. It was time to focus on the new threat, China. Obama declared a Pivot to the Pacific in his first term but events in North Africa and Syria quickly distracted this program and US once again found itself expending resources in operations that were not beneficial to any policy goal.
During this period the US attempted, but failed to distance itself from the middle east and focus towards Asia. That would be the biggest failure of US foreign policy. Not because it of what that allowed but rather what it set the stage for in the future. The past 10 years saw China make unsubstantiated claims to the South China Sea and blatently ignore a world court order that its actions are illegal. The US as standard bearer of international law did nothing and has let the relatively powerless nations stand alone against Beijing.
This lack of action by the US will have repercussion for decades to come as China has all but physically secured the SCS by creating a ring of military bases raised on man made islands. The SCS is now a Chinese lake that sees Trillions of dollars worth of trade pass through it annually.
Some could say this is good as China is taking responsibility for some international trade routes but it has done so at the expense of the sovereignty of several nations.
Some would argue that openly announcing it would challenge China in the Pacific is a mistake and setting the table for a second cold war. This has truth to it as China quickly weaponized its newly created islands in the SCS, something it said it would not do. Was this militarization a result of US rhetoric? Probably, but Beijing is the only one that can answer that. Regardless, that has happened and the US and its Asian allies must now deal with a SCS that China can effectively shut down if it wanted to.
This action or lack of action will set the stage for the next great power competition. US and China.
A counter argument can be made that by failing to pivot to Asia to counter China the US may have avoided poking the snake and starting another cold war. I would disagree. China took our rhetoric seriously and took decisive action in the SCS and ramping up its military modernization. Words matter and China is listening. They are very astute and sensitive the mistakes the USSR made when dealing with the West. They are determined not to over extend themselves or get caught up in an arms race they are not prepared for. If they secured the area out to and including the 1st island chain it gives them time and space to develop further militarily before pushing outwards.
2. Hasty withdraw from Iraq.
The Obama administration had no qualms about leaving Iraq as quickly as possible. As part of his campaign promise to end the war the Obama administration took only half hearted steps toward securing a continuing US troop presence.
After the US withdraw components of AQI rose and then split from the parent organization amid increasing Iranian influence from the shia controlled Baghdad government. This rise ISIS to protect Iraqi sunnis soon led to a region wide movement that would control the majority parts of Iraq and Syria.
a. Rise of ISIS. This was the single worst thing that could have happened. Not only did it allow the remnants of AQI develop into an even more radical jihadist organization, it was so bad that it forced the US to work with Shia militias supported by Iran. The same militias that just 8 years prior were engaged in combat with US forces.
b. Rise of Iranian Influence in Iraq as a result of the US withdraw and fighting ISIS.
This should have been known to Obama before they left Iraq. There is no way this was not known. It was inevitable that Iran fill the vacuum we left.
3. Indecisive Humanitarian Action. Regime change over people.
Libya and Syria are perfect examples. While the US intervened in Libya for humanitarian reasons the real motivation was regime change. Despite the fact that Qaddaffi was no longer a threat to the West. Why this was done is beyond me and most others.
Syria was just a goat screw. If there ever was a time when the US could have made a massive difference it could have been during the early years of the Syrian civil war. We now have a HR mess on our hands with no end in sight. Russia and Hussein effectively won the civil war and Syria is now portioned into 3 or 4 mini states depending how you look at it. The US lost all control over how Syria will look like in the future. That is up to Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria.
A decisive US humanitarian response could have lent the US a major stake in the outcome of Syria. Instead we focused on fighting ISIS outside of Iraq and followed them into Syria. Our only focus was defeating ISIS in Syria, not improving humanitarian conditions. We also gave false hope once again to the Kurds. Just when they thought they had a solid friend in the US Trump abruptly withdrew and sanctioned a Turkish offensive against the more radical elements of Kurdish nationalist groups such as the PPK.
Bluf: The US lost leverage, respect and trustworthiness with a Syrian policy that was never focused, feasible or even coherent. It was ad hoc from day one until the present.
The US could have fought ISIS in Iraq and pursued ISIS to final defeat in Syria as we did but with a follow up or concurrent mission of humanitarian assistance. This need not be done in Syria and in harms way but through Jordan and Turkey where many refugees fled.
By declaring Assad must go there was no way he was going to let the US or NATO have access to his nation for HA reasons out of fear of removal. From Day 1, the US should have announced its support only for humanitarian assistance. This could have allowed peace keepers or US HA aid to help the Syrian people stuck in the middle.
While it was these people Assad wanted stuck, it need not have been that bad had the US not immediately announce regime change as a policy goal. The hint of that was enough for Assad to double down on out right victory and absolute brutal tactics in order to survive.
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