Our President owes the American people an explanation of what is next.
Some of you may have seen that we are sending more troops to Syria.
According to the press, US forces in Syria are composed of special operators, US Army Rangers and now USMC artillery units that will reportedly support the upcoming offensive to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria. This is how things get rolling, it starts with a drip and then next thing you know the US will be conducting another “surge”. This has the potential to be another massive mistake. I pray it will not.
[Just to add a bit tactical/mission/map analysis to this,, US Rangers conducted a show of force in Manbij, Syria. Manbij is less than around 30KM or 20 miles from the Turkish border. This means the US has a logistical hub in either Turkey or Kurdish territory somewhere near Manbij. The US would not send a convoy of armored vehicles without a quick reaction force and heavy air cover into a hostile area. And US Strykers and HMMWVs guzzle fuel. A logistical hub in NATO ally Turkey is one thing, but one in Syria is another, that requires specialized US service-members to sustain them, mechanics, armorers, medics, surgeons, pilots, fuelers, and intel analysts along with weather folks, and contractors, and massive security] Just sayin. Look here at current situation. http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/March%209EDITS%20COT.pdf
Soon, or if not already, Trump has or will receive recommendations on how to defeat ISIS based on the task he gave the military. Once received and a final decision is made The President owes the American public the way forward. Just as past Presidents went on prime time TV to address the nation at a time of pending conflict Trump must do the same. I am not asking he give dates or timelines as Obama did, or antagonize the enemy like Bush did by telling AQ in Iraq to “bring it on”. We should expect a simple overview of what we are doing, why we are doing it and how we will get out of it. If all of those questions cannot be answered clearly we shouldn't do a thing.
In WWII the goal was an unconditional surrender. CHECK! Korea and Vietnam were nebulous at best. Desert Storm was to oust Iraq from Kuwait. CHECK! The initial invasion of Afghanistan was clear at first but we lost focus and now have been there for over 15 years with no end in site. Until it becomes a Korea like situation its still a war. The 2003 Iraq invasion also had clear goals at first but no way of winning/keeping the peace. That didn't happen until 2007, after tens if not hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died. When all seemed well Obama washed his hands of it and didn't engage with Baghdad during the critical post-surge period from late 2008 to Dec 2011. That is when Iran ousted the US as the preeminent influence in Baghdad.
Perspective.
This reminds me of early 2002 when I worked in the 25th Infantry Division G3 (operations) plans section. Myself and a bunch of other Captains, you know who you are, watched throughout all of 2002 and up to the invasion, as the US slowly rolled to war. In my opinion it seemed as if it was inevitable and also a massive mistake. We saw requests from CENTCOM that flew under the media’s radar because of its classification and seemingly routineness of rotating troops to the middle east, but many of these requests were very small and of specialized units, not brigade after brigade,,that came later when everyone knew a war was imminent. To me, just a young officer, it didn't seem justifiable to risk American lives when a threat was not readily apparent or obvious. I have the same feeling now, but as a taxpaying private citizen who doesn't want to see the US get involved in another war that is not essential to our existence.
Back to Topic.
We had Saddam isolated and contained and only the Iraqi people were suffering due to the embargo. I saw the true details of the increasing airstrikes the US was conducting under the guise of the No Fly zone violations. This was a deliberate plan to slowly attrit Iraqi air defenses months before we would invade.
This is similar to what’s going on in Syria now, but in a perverted way. Assad has won and and will not be removed from power until Moscow says so. It is just a matter of time before he consolidates control over all of Syria. Russian intervention initially helped him regain the initiative and focused on his center of gravity in Damascus. As Assad slowly regains ground he and his Russian allies will also crush ISIS. In Saddam case, he was contained and we really didnt have to invade. There is nothing that the US can do at this point besides provide humanitarian assistance.
What can the US really accomplish in Syria besides killing an unending stream of terrorists and jihadist? I would say not much. Instead let's focus on what we can do to improve lives.
1. Secure Iraq from ISIS, let Assad fight out his civil war in Syria. Its Russia’s mess now and Assad will reign until Moscow says otherwise. Obama blew that one with all of his red lines. Instead they were big red arrows pointing from Moscow to Damascus.
2. Avoiding a conflict with Russia.
3.Conduct long overdue humanitarian operations to support refugees in Jordan, Iraq and Turkey. This will help the US rebuild some respect with Turkey and Iraq. I doubt Iran or Russia is doing much to help refugees in either nation. The big turd in the room is the Kurdish question. It is complicated and will take time and many conferences and talks. My opinion of that is here. http://containandisolate.blogspot.com/2017/02/kurdistan-crisis-or-opportunity.html
KJH
1 comment:
Great insights!!! Thanx!!
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