My Afghan plan.

Here are my thoughts on the way forward in Afghanistan. Its somewhat thought through and I need to expand more on the endstate. If you have the time please provide input,,or any critiques. I dont think it varies that much from what currently is going on but it makes it clear and honest.

Lets face it. We aint leaving Afghanistan anytime soon, and cant. This is a long term commitment but one we can manage. Why?

- Afghanistan is a failed state. If we were to completely leave we would have another ISIS like crisis erupt and foreign nations, i.e. Iran garner more influence than the US.

- Economic potential is low in the short term outside of opium production. Long term its rich in raw materials.

- Its society has been split for generations and a massive gap exists between urban and rural populations.

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Taliban glamour photo, Paktika province, 2004. Author.

- It has one thing going for it besides raw materials. Its location, but more on that in a later post. For the time being google "the great game".

According to the latest US document on our Afghanistan strategy US objectives are “to disrupt threats posed by al Qaeda, support the ANDSF, and give the Afghan people the opportunity to succeed as they stand on their own”. Further “The ultimate goal of U.S. and international efforts is a sovereign, secure, stable, and unified Afghanistan.”

Im sorry but those goals are too broad and unachievable, especially Afghanistan being able to stand on its own. This will cost unknown lives and will waste US taxpayer funds with little tangible results to show for it that benefit international security. This will no longer be a charity operation. In exchange for our money and resources we want a dependable leader that we can count on.

Currently we give the Afghan govt AT LEAST $5 billion per year. That does not include operational costs associated with US military operations,  your tax dollars go straight to Kabul. If history is any judge most of this money is wasted among the vast enterprise that is the Afghan government. That is not a knock on the Afghan government it is just how the country operates. It’s always been like that Alexander the Great and we are ignorant to think we can change it. It will also be nearly impossible for Afghanistan to “stand on its own” as the assessment states. Afghanistan is a failed state.

So how do we reduce our exposure to risk in Afghanistan while maintaining some level of stability there? The sad answer is that there is no single good answer, and many bad ones. For starters the economic and social situation Afghanistan finds itself today began in 1978 when the communists took control. What ensued afterwards has been nothing but war. First the Soviet invasion followed by conflict caused by the withdrawal of Soviet forces and US aid and then the rise of the Taliban. What is left today is a nation that is a failed state.

So what do we do? Here is my plan.

- Make peace with the Taliban or whatever warlord agrees to keep terrorist out. If they want a sharia based autocracy so be it. We should have learned by now we cant force democracy down peoples throat. As my interpreter in Iraq once told me,,,”Democracy and freedom are not meant for everyone. Freedom may work in America but in Iraq we need a dictator”.  I agree with that. Look at Russia. They cant, and basically dont want a democracy as we know it. They are happy with Putin. If the leader isnt in line with our agenda he is out.

- Since China is now investing in Afghanistan's natural resources and has increasing fears of an ISIS insurgency in its Xinjiang province we should use this as leverage to encourage Chinese funding of infrastructure projects(which they are very good at). While this may have limited impact on the Afghan economy, based on ongoing Chinese investments in Africa and S. America, it will make China a stakeholder.  It will also warm up relations between the US and China as we work together on military and civic operations/governance.

- Stay the course and maintain a presence large enough to maintain and expand as required an intelligence network. This will be focused on counterterrorism.

- Train Afghan counter terror and special forces at the national and provincial levels. Provide aid/funding for these forces only. We can vet these forces to a higher degree and they will be much more effective than large conventional formations.

- Our NATO partners will be responsible for any training/funding of conventional forces.

- Yes, we will be creating a vassal state. But Afghanistan is a mess and needs some sort of central control to prevent it from becoming one large terror training camp.

Endstate: Maintain positive control over the government in Kabul, unlike Baghdad. Installed Afghan leader that is loyal to our agenda and we maintain close ties to. Reduced risk to US and allied troops and trainers. Funds are reduced to what is only needed to train special forces and maintain a solid intelligence network that can be expanded rapidly.